Qur’anic Perspective

At this point it would be interesting to look at what Ali Unal has to say as to why no past civilization could resist decadence and time’s corrosive power. His approach refers more to the individual and free will, rather than visible causes:1

. . . [C]ontrary to the fatalism of all other philosophies, including even Ibn Khaldun’s, the Qur’an stresses the individual’s free choice and moral conduct. Although the Divine Will, as emphasized in the Qur’an, could be regarded in some respects as the counterpart of Hegel’s Geist or as other philosophies’ absolute and irresistible laws of history, the Qur’an never denies human free will

. . . . Ibn Khaldun, Toynbee, Spengler, and other philosophers of history formed a mistaken conception of history because they did not try to discover the real dynamics of historical movements. Rather, they sought to explain the apparent causes behind a civilization’s establishment, flourishing, and decay. Whoever looks to the past will arrive at the same conclusions. But just because no community has remained at its peak this does not mean that this is an inevitable end or a determinist grip on the fate of each nation. Past civilizations collapsed because they did not heed the warnings of what had happened to earlier peoples. Accepting historical determinism causes us to nullify free will and consider the warnings and advice found in the Divine Scriptures and social sciences as useless and absurd.

This is strongly confirmed by the Qur’an in the following verses:

. . . surely God does not change the condition of a people until they change their own condition. (Rad 13:11)

. . . God never changes the grace He has bestowed on any people until they first change that which is in their hearts. (Anfal 8:53)

Theories concerning the collapse of civilizations

There are many theories concerning the collapse of civilizations, but of course, if a theory does not conform to reality, it is worth nothing. In this article, I will first give a brief account of widely held beliefs about the collapse of civilizations, explain the weaknesses of these theories, and then give a rationale that I believe better explains the historical data we have. As for most social problems, we will perhaps never know the truth about why societies collapse. However, the stakes at hand are so high that we must make every effort to understand, and to an extent, solve this problem.

The most common explanation for such collapses is some insurmountable natural disaster, like an epidemic, hurricane, drought, or earthquake that leads to the demise of a civilization by killing the population and crippling the economy. Widely-cited examples are the eruption of the volcano in Thera that preceded the collapse of the Minoan civilization, the malaria epidemic in the Roman Empire or earthquakes in Mesoamerican societies. These arguments, which are very appealing to our human nature, that desires simple explanations for all questions, are in fact very unsound. Societies constantly experience such disasters, yet survive them. The potato blight in Ireland in 1845 halved the island’s population but there was no cease of sociopolitical complexity as a result of the disaster. It is strange to think that the Roman Empire, which survived many disasters before, including the eruption of Pompei in AD 79, fell to malaria. We should consider that complex civilizations are designed to absorb such disasters, and they do. Just recalling the constant earthquakes in Japan added to the loss of a world war with two nuclear bombs exploding in the heart of two large cities will sufficiently prove this notion. Japanese civilization did not collapse. On the contrary, it is one of the strongest economies in today’s international arena. It is peculiar then that some civilizations are no longer able to fight such disasters. However, an act of God can certainly collectively destroy any civilization, as it did in the past like Sodom and Gomorrah. This is clearly narrated in the divine scriptures.

The other common explanations for such collapses are intruders and competition with other civilizations. The barbarian tribes, which brought the end of Rome in the fifth century, and the Mongolians that invaded Baghdad in the thirteenth century are clear examples of the intruder argument. This argument suffers from the realization that civilizations are attacked by outsiders throughout their existence, yet for some reason they cannot defend themselves near the time of their collapse. Competition with other societies however, is in principle expected to lead to growth and expansion instead of collapse. There is no end to the examples from this category too, like the competition of the Ottoman Empire with Persia, which indirectly weakened its western front. But the competition argument is both intuitively confusing and it fails to account for major cases, like the fall of the Roman Empire.

Another widely held belief about such collapses is that at a certain point in the life of a civilization a resource is depleted and the civilization that depends on this resource is prone to collapse. The Romans and the Ottomans both depended on military expansion for their economy, and when the relatively weak nations around them were engulfed or when they were barred from further expansion by geographical limitations, such as seas or large mountains, they were no longer able to use this resource. There seems to be some truth and lessons in this argument. To the uninformed, it is a very curious fact that the cradle of civilization was Mesopotamia, where modern day Iraq is. How is it possible that the superpowers of that era, the Sumerians (~3000 BC) and the Babylonians (~1000 BC) chose to live in these deserts? How is it possible that they irrigated the land, raised armies, and built world wonders in these sand dunes? These questions actually are easily answered when we realize that Mesopotamia was not a dessert in that era after all. It is now a generally accepted theory that this place had a fragile ecosystem, which was destroyed after thousands of years of environmental pressure. The potential for these lands to accommodate great civilizations was lost after this fragile ecosystem was slowly destroyed by its inhabitants.

However, the argument of resource depletion inherently asserts that the elite of a civilization facing resource depletion passively waits for the predictable demise. I will argue below that this case, although strange, is true. Another difficulty of the resource depletion argument is that in some instances of collapse resources were never depleted. The fertile lands of Mesopotamia still remained green until later than 1000 AD, while many civilizations experienced collapses. The Romans, who used irrigation as a resource, kept farming till the very end. Finally, one may wonder why societies aim at possessing a higher amount of resources all the time. Population increase is only a partial answer to this question. We can easily imagine a society whose population stays the same; it is not a far-fetched hypothesis that this society will naturally also try to increase its resources to fend off a variety of calamities it may experience, such as intruders and catastrophes. I believe herein lies an interesting rationale that brings together the mentioned theories that are flawed. To understand this, we first have to appreciate a law in economics, called the “law of diminishing returns.”

It is very rare in economics and in general social sciences that some series of observations can be identified as a “law.” However, the “law of diminishing returns,” first put forward in 1965 by Ester Boserup, is so comprehensive in its nature and explains such a variety of trends that it is now universally accepted. It goes: The return for an investment in a particular activity is great at the beginning, and then it gradually decreases. At a point, further investment brings no further benefits. At this point, the facility (a person, a group, a society, a factory) can no longer increase its returns, however much they would invest in that activity.

A simple example will clarify the law. Suppose we have a piece of land that we want to use for irrigation. In the beginning, we would just disperse seeds and wait for the crops to grow. Notice that our investment is minimal (say 1 unit of investment), and we get some food for our investment (again define this to be 1 unit of return). Then, if we want to increase the amount of crops we have, we may dig some canals for watering. It is straightforward to recognize that the canal digging is a lot harder than just dispersing seeds (say 5 times harder). However, it is again straightforward to recognize that although now we make 6 times more investment, we probably will not get 6 times the crop. Nevertheless, we want to maximize our return, so we still dig the canals. The next step would be to use motorized vehicles, which is maybe a 10 times increase in investment, but everybody will surely accept that it is not possible to get a crop that is 16 times greater than our original from the same plot of land. (Readers who may object that once the investments of canals and vehicles are made they will provide constant returns are reminded of the maintenance costs of these investments.) A further increase in returns may require genetically engineered crops that will require years of expensive research (more investment). The return per investment will always decrease for a certain type of activity, in this case irrigation.

This law is everywhere in life: If one week of studying suffices a result of 80 on one exam, in order to get 90, you need to study two more weeks. Most healthy people can run 100m in 20 seconds; to run it in 10 seconds you need years of exercising. Depending on one’s abilities (which determine an individual’s possible investment) these may even be impossible for many people. A vivid example is the heating problem in England during the nineteenth century. Heating, which was primarily carried out by burning wood from forests, with the increase in population had to be switched over to the burning of coal. The mining and distribution of coal, which is much more difficult than simply getting some wood from a nearby forest, was made even more difficult when the easily mined surface coal was rapidly depleted and deeper tunnels with lighting and airing problems had to be developed. It is intuitive why this law is in effect: Obviously, always, the easier solutions are adapted first, then the harder ones. Mining coal when you have easily available and plentiful wood is not reasonable. Consequently, we have a decline for our returns per investment.

The resources that civilizations use are no exception. A civilization that uses irrigation as a resource is bound to be limited by a certain level of return. Resource does not have to be depleted; it just cannot produce a return more than at a certain level. Another civilization that is dependent on taxation, mercenary or military expansion can achieve no more return after a certain level, no matter what adjustments it makes to its existing policy. Having said this, we can understand why a civilization that depends on a certain type of energy or resource cannot expand its influence beyond a certain level. Moreover, when energy becomes scarce, the civilization can become less agile in terms of trying new resources and new ways to produce returns, since agility and innovation mostly depend on using some of the surplus resources on strategies that will most probably yield no returns. Hence the rise of large architectural structures and many inefficient military operations are carried out during the ascent of a young civilization. These activities, which are easily buffered by the large returns that come from initial investment on the main resource of a civilization become impossibly costly later when the returns from the same investment is declining.

One last piece of the puzzle completes the rationale as to why civilizations collapse, and this piece is an easily accepted assumption: A civilization is like a dinosaur. It is large and strong, but it is adapted to the conditions into which it was born. The conditions change, however, the dinosaur cannot change its behavior. It helplessly tries to maximize the returns for the type of resource that it is adapted to use, and after a point, it simply cannot, thanks to the universal and unforgiving law of diminishing returns. At this point, another civilization, that primarily uses another superior resource, will have larger returns, build a larger army to invade the former civilization, build larger ships to cut off the trade routes, and produce goods to cripple its economy… This is just a matter of time, and it is unavoidable (see Figure 1b). The strength of the civilization in its golden age is now its weakness. In such a weakness, since there is no extra resource to fight new problems-all resource is either used up by the population, or goes toward defense costs-even a natural disaster can bring an end to a civilization that once seemed to be indestructible.

The Ottoman Empire’s strength in its rise was its perfect hierarchical organization which led to the accumulation of all power under the Sultan. Its main resource was military expansion and taxation of trade. These adaptations, which were ideal for the time between the thirteenth and fifteenth centuries, led to one of the most powerful empires that have ever reigned. However, by the sixteenth century, these strategies had become burdens: Due to the strong hierarchy, an intelligentsia that supported science and art as in the West could never develop. Military expansion had to stop. Taxation could no longer work since the Mediterranean Sea was no longer used for trade. The strategies were not abandoned though, instead, more investments were made in order to increase the returns, which as we saw above is a nonviable alternative. Eventually, other civilizations that used better resources brought about the end of the Empire. A similar order of events can be observed for other civilizations that collapsed. The great Arab historian Ibn Khaldun of the fourteenth century likens the lives of civilizations to the natural lifespan of individuals. They are born, they grow old, and they die. In my view, a civilization does not die because it gets old; it dies because it cannot compete with a stronger civilization.

The natural question to ask is if our current civilization will collapse. From the analysis above, we can conclude that there are two reasons for the collapse of a civilization: 1) Dependence on a certain type of investment and failing to adapt to the new conditions. 2) The invention by another competitor civilization of a new type of investment with higher returns. In today’s world, both of these reasons are in some ways different than those that existed in the past. First, with the advancement of science, the current civilizations are flexible in the resources they utilize, the options are constantly evaluated, the heating in United Kingdom does not collapse when wood is depleted; instead, coal, then gas, then nuclear power is used. The return for the investment made for some utility is similar to the curve shown in Figure 1c: whenever the return for a type of investment declines, we can shift to the next resource. Second, by the immense advancement in information processing and communication, the whole world is aware of the types of investments other societies are using, and a leading civilization that follows the developments in other countries is very unlikely to be threatened by a sudden development in a rival civilization. Third, because of progress in international trade, the old sense that any other civilization is an enemy has lost its significance.

Notwithstanding these reasons, only a few decades ago, at the height of the cold war, we witnessed the possibility of the immediate collapse of our civilization. Global warming and the depletion of petrol reserves were only two of the many alarming cues that we may have turned to declining returns for our investment curve. It is imperative to remember again that the stakes are very high. The next civilization to fall may bring about the fall of the human species.

Notes

1. Tainter, J. (1988). The Collapse of Complex Societies, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge: 1988.
2. Grigg D. Ester Boserup’s theory of agrarian change: a critical review. Prog Hum Geogr. 1979; 3 (1): 64-84.
3. Unal, Ali, Islam Addresses Contemporary Issues, Kaynak, Izmir:1998, p. 142.

After the sixth phase, the typical characteristic in the universe was a temperature that reached as high as 4,000 C. At that temperature space was not as dark as it is today, rather it gleamed brightly. As matter condensed into gases and cooled down as time passed, the density values increased and the planets that we know today started to form out of the increasingly solidifying matter. The universe, presumably, was still a homogeneous gas cloud of helium and hydrogen when it reached an age of 700,000 years. Yet, the universe did not become a single galaxy by collapsing on a single point; rather billions of galactic centers were created. So, what made the universe wait as a gas cloud in just that state? Why did it not collapse in on a single point?

While cosmology has been asking this question for years, Roger Penrose, a theoretical physicist and black hole expert, tried to compute the first creation power in one of his studies in 1973. Some tiny particles, smaller than a proton, were discovered. Those particles had been formed not by the collapse of the stars, but during the first creation after The Big Bang. Although those tiny black particles were far smaller than atoms, they behaved like black holes and swallowed everything they encountered. Yet it seems that they left their footprints as they passed. It seems as if hydrogen and helium clouds had gathered around those enormous attraction centers and the cores of billions of galaxies had thus formed. The universe was being shaped and was expanding from particles made up of a cosmic soup, a gas cloud. The Qur’an also relates the great transformation that took place in shaping the universe:

Have the unbelievers not beheld that the heavens and the earth were a solid mass, then We separated them; and of water We produced every living thing, will they not believe, then? (21:30)

From Dust and Gas Clouds to Cosmic Systems

Stars, like living beings, grow older and demise. They go through an infancy, then youth and adulthood. Some gas and dust clouds, known as Nebulas lie among galaxies. Nebulas are considered to be the raw material of stars. In our galaxy, the Milky Way, gas and dust clouds are mostly located on the spiral arms that extend outward. An impact, called a shock wave, causes interstellar matter to come together and condense into huge clouds and spheres in space. The clouds that condense during the first formation of stars are so thin that they do not even have gravitational effect. Due to this lack of gravity, it has not yet been fully understood how these gas and dust clouds came together and condensed.

A condensed cloud heats up due to the collisions within it; these collisions increase as the cloud is compressed in a process that lasts millions of years. These collisions cause the cloud to sparkle and gleam. Initially, some rays, such as infrared or radio waves, are emitted.

While the star forms, the outer crust collapses very slowly, whereas the central parts collapse at a much greater rate. As the cloud condenses farther, it emits more light and starts to shine inside the dark, dusty covering that surrounds it. This nuclear cooking-pot, which has a temperature of 10 million C at its core, sparkles. With the flaring of the star, a disk forms around the newly created center. Strong winds, triggered by the powerful hot gases that are emitted from the upper and lower surfaces of the disk, blow in opposite directions; they sweep away most of the original gas cloud that formerly impeded the visibility of the new star. Thus, the star begins to be visible through an ordinary telescope. The energy produced in the center of the star after it has been formed and reaches a certain age, impedes greater collapse. This energy provides the necessary pressure to block the collapse of matter and seeks a way to escape. Hence, the star reaches an equilibrium.

We cannot observe stars being born in interstellar gas clouds with normal telescopes. This is because the gases in space and within the dust clouds act like the particles in cigarette smoke and absorb the light. Thus, we see the clouds as dark silhouettes on the surface of the star. Formations of stars can only be observed through infrared telescopes. An infrared telescope was first placed on a satellite sent into orbit in 1983. That telescope discovered thousands of young stars hiding in the depths of interstellar clouds.

A condensed gas cloud needs to be of a certain size in order to become a star. If the gathering gas clouds are not large enough, a different situation occurs: a planet is born! The stars and planet systems that orbit the stars are formed in this way. While stars are being formed, the planets are made out of smaller gas clouds.

The Sun is a typical small star that is relatively very young. We can see stars in space that are up to a hundred times as large as the Sun, or ones that are one-tenth its size. When stars are compared to the Sun, the dimmer ones that have a surface temperature of only 3,000 C are at the bottom of the range, while ones similar to the Sun, with a surface temperature of 6,000 C, occupy the middle range. Stars that are much larger than the Sun have a surface temperature surpassing 30,000 C. Contrary to general thought, larger stars live shorter lives, because the denser and the hotter the core is, the more intense are the nuclear reactions that take place.

Thus, these stars have brighter surfaces. A massive star that uses more nuclear power is more likely to run out of fuel sooner. On the other hand, a smaller star that uses its fuel sparsely has a longer life, even though it has less fuel. We know that there is a simple relation between the temperature and the pressure of a gas. If we heat up a gas in an enclosed container, the pressure will increase; if we cool it down, the pressure will decrease. When you think of a star with a temperature reaching millions of degrees Celsius at its center, you can understand how great the pressure is there. We know that heat is being produced through nuclear reactions. Every star is under the influence of an attraction force that approximates and compresses the elements of the atoms it contains. As the mass of the star increases so does the attraction force. This inward force is balanced by the force of outward nuclear explosions. The most significant reaction that ensures the vitality and continuity of the star is the transformation of hydrogen into helium through fusion. Yet, while this happens, the fuel lessens and the reactor will fail to function properly. At this point, the force of the pressure keeping the star in a balance is endangered and the star begins to lose its long struggle against the attraction within its mass.

As stars lose their fuel, they are exposed to different “deaths,” in proportion to their mass. The number 1.44 is the coefficient related to the mass of the Sun. Stars with a mass of less than 1.44 times the mass of the Sun become black or white dwarves, whereas those with a mass of more than 1.44 times the mass of the Sun become supernovas, neutron stars, and eventually black holes. If the mass of a star is more than 1.44 times the mass of the Sun, it will not remain as a dwarf. Its inner temperature and density will increase and the fuel, in the form of iron, nickel, chrome and cobalt, will not be able to burn anymore. Temperature and pressure turn the electrons and protons into neutrons by adhering them to one another. The iron core becomes a huge ball with a diameter measuring 100 kilometers. At a critical temperature the star explodes, emitting a billion times its normal light intensity. This is a supernova explosion. With the explosion, a terrific shock wave and the flow of neutrino (an elementary particle with zero charge and zero mass) spreads. The materials produced in the explosion flow into space as gas clouds.

The Event of the Supernova and the World

As a matter of fact, at one time we were physically part of a star. That star was probably larger than the Sun and was formed right after the creation of the universe, namely in the first few hundred thousand years.

At those times, the universe was almost completely made up of hydrogen. The solar system and the earth had been formed of this element. Hydrogen was the beginning of everything, and whatever material was available in the universe had been derived from the hydrogen atom. Only after being processed in the nuclear furnace for billions of years did hydrogen turn into helium.

Consequently, the star’s life was over. As the fuel in the depots was running out, demise emerged on the horizon. It began in fits and starts, and then when the furnace was about to go out, the mass of the huge star collapsed in on itself. Having increased in size after the collapse, the pressure triggered new nuclear reactions. Thus, a series of elements, ranging from carbon to iron, came to be part of the body. Finally, the star gave its all with an enormous explosion that we call a supernova. A billion-year life ended in just a few seconds. Atom particles at the core of the star melted and turned into neutrons in just a few seconds, and the parts closer to surface were thrown into space at a speed of ten million kilometers per second. It was a magnificent moment in which billions of degrees of heat was produced and in which a great light, as bright as one billion suns, shone. Some of the elements that are heavier than iron were also created during that time.

Supernova means death to a star. The enormous energy once unleashed heats up the outer layers of the star so much that the way is paved for new fusion and energy-absorbing reactions to occur instead of energy-freeing ones. Not only iron, but also other heavy elements, such as gold, lead, and uranium are manufactured in this furnace. These elements are thrown into space together with pre-synthesized and lighter ones, like carbon and oxygen, and combine with the wreckages of other supernovas. During the succeeding millenniums, new star and planet generations are created.

For our planet, fantastic and extraordinary cosmic events, such as supernovas, have been the starting point for the existence of some elements, like oxygen, gold and silver, and ultimately for the creation of life. The sources of carbon and oxygen that are essential to life, the silver and gold rings that we wear on our fingers, the lead plates on our roofs, and the uranium that fuels our nuclear reactors are all results of the death throes of stars that died prior to the birth of the Sun.

As we have seen, a supernova explosion causes matter to move from one point to another. As a result of such explosions, many of the remnants of stars are spread over space and new stars or star systems are created by the accumulation of such remnants. The Sun and the planets in our solar system and surely those in our universe exist as the result of a very early supernova. In this immense universe which houses humanity, the transformation that matter undergoes, and the gradual advance toward a certain destination, all indicate that the Divine Knowledge, Power and Will are intermingled with His Compassion and Grace.

The era of illumination which began with the coming of our Prophet, upon him be peace, lasted for centuries. Then, we began to lose the dynamism of our civilization, to collapse. As a result, we came to regard the enemy as more powerful than ourselves. Our power of will and strength of spirit were paralysed. We sought excuses for our defeats, and considered the enemy invincible. The people, in consequence, lost their hope and resolve.

For many centuries we have deluded ourselves into believing our enemies irresistible, singing the praises of their military superiority. On occasions, we have even accused our ancestors of failing to match the technical advances of our opponents and have spoken ill of them. At other times, we have moaned that the enemy is cruel and pitiless. What we have not done is to criticize ourselves and honestly evaluate our own attitudes. In doing so, we have inflicted further heavy blows to the hope and resolve of people. It will remain impossible to establish the real reasons for our collapse, impossible to achieve a true revival as long as we continue to ascribe our defeats only to the military or technical superiority of the enemy and the superior number of their mechanized troops.

So ask yourselves, and then tell me, have you actually fulfilled your obligations? Have you been able to pursue the right road in your activities? Do you have enough will-power and resistance to overcome the obstacles that you face? Are your thoughts and actions in conformity with your beliefs? Have you been able to keep clear of such sinister motivating forces as hatred, malice and vengeance? And your plans and projects–are they carefully, accurately and appropriately thought out?

Only those afflicted with paralysis of will-power and spirit are so blind to their own faults that they busy themselves in finding fault with others. Such poor souls will never be able to perceive the truth, nor make a spiritual recovery, unless they admit that they are themselves fallible.

Every defeat and decline from greatness arises, first of all, from spiritual bankruptcy, and it will continue until there is spiritual recovery. What is most ominous for the well-being of the community is that the spiritually bankrupt individuals do not hold themselves responsible for the decay of the social order, and persist in laying the blame for it on others.

For God’s sake, stop blaming others, and allow yourself to carry a little of the blame. Be self-critical, at least a little. If indeed you are on the right road, if indeed your hearts are set on the service of the truth, and fully alert to your responsibilities, then no one will be able to do you any harm. Remember that only by the Will of God does harm or good come to anyone. Remember that the way has always been paved by Divine Destiny for those pure, loving souls who are determined to serve and support the truth.

How often has a small, resolute band, devoted to jihad, overcome, by God’s leave, a more numerous host. Many devout, godly persons have spent their whole lives in the way of God, and not quailed in front of whatever has befallen them. They have neither been weakened, nor brought low. They are the fortunate ones who are welcomed by the angels, and it is they who will be commemorated by succeeding generations.