Nose cells as the key COVID-19 entry point

Sungnak et al. SARS-CoV-2 entry factors are highly expressed in nasal epithelial cells together with innate immune genes. Nature Medicine, April 2020.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Detection of the virus was first reported in Wuhan, China and has since spread worldwide and emerged as a global pandemic. COVID-19 primarily affects the lungs and airways and has a wide range of symptoms including fever, coughing, and sore throat. One of the scariest aspects of the virus is that some people may not manifest symptoms but can still carry and spread it. In severe cases, the virus causes pneumonia that can ultimately lead to death. Studies suggest that the virus is thought to be spread through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes and appears to be easily transmitted within affected areas. COVID-19 has spread to more than 184 countries and claimed more than 190,000 lives so far. One of the major questions scientists around the world are trying to understand is how the virus spreads, how we can prevent transmission, and how we can develop an effective vaccine. To discover the target cells involved in COVID-19 transmission, scientists analyzed the gene expression profiles of thousands of cells from 20 different human tissues including the lung, nasal cavity, eye, gut, heart, kidney, and liver. They specifically looked for individual cell types that expressed both of two key COVID-19 entry proteins – the receptor protein ACE2 and the TMPRSS2 protease. These analyses revealed that mucus-producing goblet cells and ciliated cells on the inner lining of the nose have the highest level of COVID-19 virus proteins of all cells in the airways. While there are many external and internal factors that contribute to the virus’ transmissibility, these findings are consistent with the rapid infection rates of the virus. The location of these cells on the surface of the inside of the nose makes them highly accessible to the virus and also may assist with transmission to other people. Interestingly, ACE2 and TMPRSS2 were also found in cells in the cornea of the eye and in the lining of the intestine. This suggests another possible route of infection via the eye and tear ducts, and also revealed a potential for fecal-oral transmission. These findings have important implications for understanding viral transmissibility and could have critical translational implications. For example, given that nasal carriage is likely to be a key feature of transmission, drugs and vaccines administered intra-nasally could be highly effective in limiting the spread of the virus.

Neutrinos Could Explain Why the Universe Has So Much More Matter Than Antimatter

The T2K Collaboration. Constraint on the matter–antimatter symmetry-violating phase in neutrino oscillations. Nature, April 2020

The current laws of physics propose that 13.8 billion years ago, at the time of the Big Bang, every particle of matter had been created with a counterpart called antimatter. Antimatter is precisely the same as matter but with an opposite physical property such as an electrical charge. The great mystery for physicists is why there is so much more matter than antimatter in the universe. If there had been equal quantities in the beginning then each particle would have wiped each other out in a blaze of energy and left the universe full of just photons and dark matter. To understand the mystery behind this asymmetry, scientists have utilized an experiment known as “T2K.” T2K is a collaboration between 500 international scientists that employs a proton accelerator in Japan that generates beams of subatomic particles called muon neutrinos and antineutrinos which then travel 295 km to the gigantic Super-Kamiokande detector, located in a tank filled with 50,000 tons of water under a mountain in Kamioka on Japan’s west coast. During this trip, the muon neutrinos and antineutrinos change in flight to electron neutrinos and antineutrinos, demonstrating the phenomenon of neutrino oscillations. The team observed for the first time that there is a significant difference between neutrino and antineutrino oscillations. Neutrinos were found to turn into electron neutrinos at a much higher rate than their antineutrino counterparts and, as a result, would propagate regular matter at a higher rate than antimatter. These results show that although matter and antimatter look so similar to each other, they can behave completely different. Previously, scientists have found some differences in behavior between matter and antimatter versions of other subatomic particles called quarks, but the differences observed did not seem to be large enough to account for the dominance of matter in the universe. This new data indicates that subatomic particle neutrinos might be the very reason the universe is dominated by matter. While the scientific community is very excited about these results, most experts suggest collecting a lot more data in order to get the confidence level of their results up over the current ratio of 95%.

Humans Tend To Go With Our “Gut Feelings” Over Evidence-based Decisions

Konovalov& Krajbich. Mouse tracking reveals structure knowledge in the absence of model-based choice. Nature Communications, April 2020.

A new study showed that when faced with a decision, humans prefer to follow their “gut feeling” or habits instead of taking all facts into account. In the study, participants played a simple computer game in which identifying patterns could make them more money. While following the patterns led to success most of the time, there was still a 10-40% chance that it would not give the best outcome. The researchers observed that 56 of the 57 participants were able to identify the pattern to make the decision that gave them the highest chance of success. However, only about 20% of players consistently went with that choice after it failed them. The other 80% of players diverged and made choices based upon their gut feelings. The researchers suggest that participants decided to go with their gut feelings when making in-game decisions because choosing the best pattern only led to a slightly higher chance of success. This study highlights how decision-making works in real life. People can learn what choices lead to the best outcomes; but putting that knowledge into practice can often be difficult as it likely takes a lot of mental and sometimes physical energy to always make decisions based upon your knowledge of your current environment. Moreover, the rewards of following the best strategy aren’t always obvious in real life. Following a familiar strategy may increase your success by only a small percentage. In our decision making, there is always the dilemma – what we should do from a statistical perspective versus what worked out well recently, typically in an anecdotal manner.

Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman’s work on intuition reveals an important categorization of human thinking: one takes place effortlessly, immediately after the stimulus and without the command or approval of the self; the other one takes time and effort, and requires approval and guidance from deeper consciousness. The former is called System 1, or fast thinking, and the latter is called System 2, or slow thinking^[2].

System 1 handles basic tasks like walking, breathing, and calculations like determining the value of 2 x 2, while System 2 takes on more complicated, abstract decision making tasks, such as recognizing a face that hasn’t been seen for a long time, making investment decisions, and calculations such as multiplying multiple digit numbers, e.g., 435 x 23. Many of our mistakes, Kahneman says, occur when exhaustion or other factors cause System 1 to do jobs better suited for System 2.

System 1 thinking is highly prone to error and it usually results in mistakes, most of which can be avoided if System 2 thinking is employed. Each individual is responsible for determining if a situation calls for fast or slow thinking. Age, education, and economic and social status have effects on whether System 1 and System 2 are employed properly.

When System 1 and System 2 thinking mechanisms are considered in the social context, it provides a whole new dimension in analyzing social issues, their solutions and public policies. Although System 1 and System 2 thinking are pertinent to individuals, society in general may be greatly affected by how people in decision and/or policy making positions employ those systems, since such decisions, good or bad, are consequential with regards to their likely impact on the betterment of society.

Kahneman’s study gives us a good understanding of the mechanisms employed in the human decision making process. Various factors that cause people to use System 1 when System 2 is a better fit have been studied; however, what motivates people using System 2 remains opaque, despite its crucial role in our personal life and in society at large.

When Kahneman was asked what the simplest, most straightforward advice he would give to someone who wants to make sure they are not ceding certain, important System 2 decisions and calculations to System 1, his answer was, “Slow down, sleep on it, and ask your most brutal and least empathetic close friends … who understand your feeling but are not overly impressed by them”^[3].

Such discoveries of human behavioral patterns remind us of a tradition that has been promoted throughout history in sacred texts and the works of scholars. This tradition is called consultation. The theological motivation for the institution of consultation is the result of one’s acceptance of his/her limits and/or humbleness, and the hope that thanks to this acceptance of not knowing all the aspects of a subject, God, the All-Knowing, will show the right way and lead him/her to the path that is best.

The Proverbs refer to persons who do things with counsel as prudent men: “Among the proud there are always contentions: but they that do all things with counsel, are ruled by wisdom”^[4]. The significance of consultation is made obvious in the Qur’an by naming a chapter Consultation (Ash-Shura); the chapter emphasizes the role of consultation in personal and social life [5]. Another verse suggests utilizing consultation in public affairs^[6].

The prominent 20th century scholar Said Nursi makes a point on consultation in his unique way: “… each individual in a true, sincere union can also see with the eyes of other brothers and sisters, and hear with their ears. It is as if each of the ten persons in true solidarity and unity has the value and power of seeing with twenty eyes, thinking with ten intellects, hearing with twenty ears …”^[7].

System 1 thinking has greater control over our judgments, especially in the presence of intense emotions such as excitement and anger. It is not uncommon that we regret the promises we make within the excitement of a moment or the things we say when we are angry. Abu Dharr reported something along these lines: Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, said to us, “If one of you is angry when he is standing, let him sit down so that the anger will leave him; otherwise, let him lie down”^[8]. Changes such as switching positions can buy just enough time for System 2 to kick in. The devil is in details, think before you speak, and think twice before you act – these are some of the idioms and proverbs that guide us on how to keep a healthy balance between fast and slow thinking.

The risk of error in our decisions and judgments can be alleviated as we move from Thinking Fast to Thinking Slow – and even further to Thinking Together, i.e. consulting with relevant parties. In a sense, humbleness is the key attribute that prevents us from making “fast” decisions without due reflection and encourages us to consult with others, and hence, make better decisions on issues that challenge us.

Gokhan Aydin is a graduate student at Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, RF/Microwave Lab. Syracuse University.

REFERENCES

1. Herbert A. Simon, Models of Man: Social and Rational. New York: Wiley and Sons, Inc.
2. Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York, 2013
3. Jesse Signal, Daniel Kahneman’s Gripe with Behavioral Economics, www.thedailybeast.com
4. Proverbs 13:10.
5. The Holy Quran, Chapter 42, Verse 38, Translation by Ali Unal
6. The Holy Quran, Al Imran, 159, Translation by Ali Unal
7. The Twenty-First Gleam, The Gleams, by BSN, Tugra Books, New Jersey, 2008
8. Abu Dawud, 4782

New developments in scientific thought and hypotheses testing are changing the ways we think about truth and certainty.

Not only do scientific decisions rely heavily on tools and procedures of quantitative analysis, but also on social life and daily decisions. I want to start with a story from the judiciary system about the misuse of an important quantitative tool of the scientific community, Hypothesis Testing. It’s about the overturned Amanda Knox case in Italy. In 2007, she was accused of killing her roommate and sent to jail. The odds of DNA matching in the case of accidental death were reported as incredibly rare by a forensic data analyst, who examined data with regard to incidents of crime, concluding that the accident is not statistically an accident. The judges then made their decision based on this rareness, a single value, named p-value. Later, this was overturned (New York Times, March 27, 2013), because of a misinterpretation by the judges and lawyers, of the rare probability. What factors forced the judiciary system to make this decision based on a single value alone? Honestly, this is the story of the century and a story of Hypothesis Testing. This article introduces the logic behind their decision, draws attention to the misuse of data, and mentions alternative logics to this traditional approach on the matter (in March 2013, Italy’s Supreme Court ordered a retrial and found the two suspects guilty on January 30, 2014).

What is Hypothesis Testing?

We live in a data-driven world. Statistical inference is the process of drawing conclusions or decisions from data. The Hypothesis Testing procedure in the Neyman-Pearson paradigm is one of the procedures of this process, widely used in the scientific community for over a century. In this mindset, two complementary hypotheses are first defined: one is the conventional thesis (the null hypothesis) accepted to be true by default; the other is the alternative thesis (the alternative hypothesis) that needs evidence from data to falsify the null hypothesis. It results in a single value, called p-value, which is calculated from the data using theoretical model assumptions. A p-value is a measure – in probability sense, ranging from 0% to 100% – of how much evidence you have against the null hypothesis. The smaller the p-value, the more evidence you have against the null hypothesis. One may combine the p-value with the significance level to make decisions on a given hypothesis. This is also called significance testing. It has an accept-reject mindset (dichotomous decision or binary logic); in such a case, if the p-value is less than some threshold (usually .05) then the null hypothesis is rejected. Basically, it is a black or white decision, without considering the contrasts between them. This interpretation has been widely accepted in the twentieth century of scientific research, and many scientific journals routinely publish papers using this interpretation for the results of hypothesis tests, even though there are current tendencies not to use this. Let’s take a look at the history of this black-white logic.

History

The history of the process of hypothesis testing starts with Fisher (1890-1962), around the early twentieth century. Later, the contributions of Pearson (1857-1936) and Neyman (1894-1981), who were early fathers of statistics, about the interpretation of the hypothesis tests were integrated into present-day applications. Fisher’s approach focuses on inductive inference about a single hypothesis, whereas the Neyman-Pearson approach informs future behavior based on a test using two complementary hypotheses (Newman 2007).

These approaches are strongly influenced by Popper’s logic of falsification. Falsification can be defined as the act of disproving a proposition, hypothesis, or theory. This logic asserts that sufficiently improbable events can be considered impossible. A p-value suggests whether a null hypothesis is sufficiently improbable to be considered practically falsified in the sense of a logical refutation (Newman 2007). When we come back to the Amanda Knox case, the decision the judges made and justified is followed from this falsification logic in hypothesis testing. Another criticism with this mindset is: how fair it is to rely on a single value that yields a rare result? Are we going to generalize one lucky drawing of raffle tickets to believe all tickets are winners?

Logics and proofs

We use logical flaws and biases in our daily life. Finding the logical flaw in scientific papers is something most readers aren’t interested in. Instead, the results are believed as a fact. One of the widely used flaws/biases is in seeking or interpreting evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs or a hypothesis in hand (Mercie and Sperber, 2011). We tend to prove or show the accessibility or superiority of arguments by bringing evidence. Failure to prove that a treatment – say, a low fat diet – is effective is not the same as proving it is ineffective.

Let me give another example to clarify this: The New York Times editorial news reported on February 9, 2006, “Millions of Americans have tried to reduce the fat in their diets, and the food industry has obligingly served up low-fat products. Yet now comes strong evidence that the war against all fats was mostly in vain.” Actually, in the hypothesis testing mindset, the evidence collected from research should either reject the null hypothesis which is “diet is ineffective,” or fail to reject it. The mindset in testing is not about finding evidence to support the null statement. It is also not about proving the alternative hypothesis, “diet is effective.” Rather, it is basically looking for evidences to falsify the null statement. In the report, the “evidence” the reporter meant should be against the null hypothesis, not against the alternative hypothesis. Data is collected to falsify the null hypothesis, not to prove its truthiness, because the null is already accepted to be true unless convincing evidence is collected against it.

Let me give another example of this paradigm. As Newfoundland (2013) described, a person is innocent until proven guilty by bringing convincing evidence. The jury can’t say “he is innocent,” instead, the jury uses evidence that produces reasonable doubt to reject his innocence.

Developments in inferential paradigms

The accept-reject paradigm in inference represents a conventional wisdom. There are other, or currently developing, paradigms in inference, too. One of the dominating paradigms is the Bayesian-likelihood approach. After enjoying much wider acceptance in social and natural sciences, the Bayesian method suggests different views of hypothesis testing. The Bayesian approach is a method of data analysis in which subjectivity, conditionality, or past information is used to update the hypothesis as additional evidence is acquired. This approach in hypothesis testing offers a dynamic structure in probability calculation so hypotheses, and decisions, are not seen as a static truth; instead, they are updated with current data and the decision is stated in the sense of likelihood.

In our court room example, the Bayesian inference is applied to all evidence presented, with the past information being combined with the current evidence. The benefit of a Bayesian approach is that it gives all historical information so the decision is unbiased all along as the past data (prior knowledge) is used correctly. This paradigm changes the way statistics are calculated and how the result and inference are interpreted. Currently it is widely appreciated in quantitative data analysis, especially after convenient software exists for its implementation. However, the criticism to this approach, made by many, is found in its subjectivity. Objectivity and handling prior knowledge is a concern here so that different people, having different opinions, may arrive at different results.

Another developing paradigm: Fuzzy Logic

Fuzzy logic is another method in quantitative decision making. In contrast to binary logic (yes-no, or accept-reject), fuzzy logic can be thought of as gray logic, which allows a way to express in-between data values. It emerged in the development of the theory of fuzzy sets, by Lotfi Zadeh (1965). Fuzzy logic is mostly seen as a branch of artificial intelligence that deals with reasoning algorithms used to emulate human thinking and decision making. It handles the concept of partial truth using linguistic variables, where the truth value may range between completely true and completely false. The concept of partial truth would be subjective and would depend on the observer. For example, for the temperature of the weather, we want to determine when to say cold, warm, and hot. The meaning of each of these concepts can be represented by a certain membership (called a fuzzy set). The concept of each would be subjective. One might consider cold for all values up to 40 0F. In Figure 1, the meanings of the expressions cold, warm, and hot are represented by functions mapping a temperature scale to “truth values” ranging from 0 to 1. A point on that scale has three truth degrees, one for each of the three functions (expressions). The vertical line in the figure represents a particular temperature that the truth values (see three arrows) are measured. Since the red arrow points to zero, this temperature may be interpreted as “not hot.” The orange arrow (pointing at 0.2) may describe it as “slightly warm,” and the blue arrow (pointing at 0.8) “fairly cold” (Fuzzy Logic, 2013, para. 6). A rule could then be adopted, like for example, if “slightly warm” then stop the fan.

Picture was obtained from

Fuzzy logic uses truth degrees as a mathematical model of the vagueness phenomenon, and it summarizes data analysis in facts with truth degrees, and leaves the decision to the observer. Its advantage is its ability to deal with vague situations with respect to linguistic variables. While the significance testing for a hypothesis declares one accept or reject, fuzzy logic allows for degrees of acceptance or rejection. However, in fuzzy logic, the notion of truth doesn’t fall by the wayside, but it is expressed in degrees and offers possibilities for different situations. Regarding inference, fuzzy logic uses the mindset ‘everything is a matter of degree and open to interpretation,’ and this mindset is also adopted to machine learning, which is considered a more suitable mindset with human reasoning instead of binary logic. The constraints in fuzzy logic are found in its tools and interpretations when complex inputs are considered.

The developments of paradigms in statistical inference have similar fates as in the developments of mathematics, geometry, and physics. According to the Euclidean parallel postulate, in space, there exist no two parallel lines that intersect each other. However, after Non-Euclidean geometry was developed in the nineteenth century, a wider geometrical and mathematical reasoning stemmed from it; accordingly, the geometry of the physical universe and particles came to be understood better. The development of Riemannian geometry, offering that distance properties might vary, resulted in the synthesis of diverse results concerning the geometry of higher dimensional surfaces and the behavior of geodesics on them. It also made Einstein’s theory of general relativity justifiable. Likewise, as time passes, we witness wider paradigms or logics that abandon or correct former approaches in scientific decision making tools. This is a good reason why teachers and professors should update their current teachings as to be consistent with convincing trends, as well as to train students to be ready for wider paradigms in the future.

Conclusion

In today’s scientific community, the way decisions are made and fallacies proved, are changing as new paradigms emerge. In order to make better decisions or to validate claims, many aspects and methodologies should be considered. One way to avoid mistakes as much as we can would be to expect fallacy points to exist in human mental processing during decision making, and improving and seeking better alternatives with well-established wisdoms.

(Thanks Ugur Sahin for reviewing the preliminary copy of this article.)

References

• Fuzzy Logic. In Wikipedia. Retrieved August 1, 2013, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_logic
• Kass, Robert E. 2011. Statistical Inference: The Big Picture 1. Statistical Science, 2011, Vol. 26, No. 1, 1-9, DOI: 10.1214/10-STS337, Institute of Mathematical Statistics.
• Mercier, Hugo, Dan Sperber. 2011. “Why do humans reason? Arguments for an argumentative theory.” Behavioral and Brain Sciences. 34, 57-111.
• Newfoundland, Jason. 2013. “The Cell Phone-Brain Cancer Controversy.” The Fountain Magazine, Jan-Feb, Issue 91.
• Newman, Michael C. 2008. “‘What exactly are you inferring?’ A closer look at hypothesis testing.” Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, Vol. 27, No. 5, pp. 1013-1019, 2008.

In spite of the developments in science and technology, we are still so powerless at predicting phenomena; there is so little we can control and uncertainties are so many. We do not face the challenge of uncertainties at predicting happenings but also at decision-making. While we make decisions in daily life we try to minimize uncertainties. Any decision that holds uncertainties in its nature is risky. Therefore, decision-making processes are a kind of risk management at the same time. All the efforts are directed toward reducing the possible risks and mistakes. High-risk problems have a higher ratio of mistakes.

Studies of forecast need collecting numeric data and analyzing them along with obtaining relevant information based on observations. The data to be collected should be objective and the statistical methods appropriate. Otherwise, unsuccessful forecasts will lead to waste of time, money, and resources. Decision problems with uncertainties can be of different nature. For example, it is possible to reckon when an apple which broke off from its branch will reach the ground by knowing physical laws. As factors get more complicated, possibility of surprises is much higher. The discipline which systematizes these studies is econometrics. Statistics, mathematics, economics, optimization, decision-making, and computer science fall within the studies of econometrics. Forecast problems are mainly studied with numeric and extrapolative analyses.

In recent years, intuitive methods have been added to these two major approaches. Along with other issues, numeric analysis is frequently used in artificial neural networks, computer simulations, and computer-based learning methods. Artificial neural networks are formed by trying to model the millions of neurons in human brain work. The artificial cells whose number varies between five to ten are educated by using a certain mathematical transformation function, with recurring algorithmic processes. At the end of the process of education with past data, the performances of the calculations in new situations are evaluated. This method, which is used at various forecast problems, is really meaningful in terms of reflecting what can be done by merely copying a few of the millions of human nerves. However, the greatest obstacle before the studies of artificial neural networks are the computers with insufficient capacity. Even super computer systems have difficulty in an optimization problems with more than a hundred cells and the data obtained is far from useable. One cannot help but amaze at the perfect capacity of human brain and how it tackles hundreds of parallel processes incessantly. In some decision-making problems, due to insufficient numeric data, the parameters targeted to be forecast may not be reliable and present a peculiar nature. The studies about very rare diseases and forecasting technological developments are examples to that. In such cases, numeric analyses do not help because of not having any reliable numeric data. Therefore, extrapolative analysis methods are preferred at such forecast problems. At forecasts based on extrapolation, the expert’s level of knowledge, intuition, experience, capacity of processing information, and power of judgment are important but they remain limited. There are lots of forecast problems about socioeconomic life such as economic fluctuations, price moves, and commercial size. Healthy forecasts on how and when to make investments are very important in order for the investors’ determining how to utilize their resources. However, the investors’ decisions will inevitably have uncertainties to a great degree. Therefore, it can be said that studies of forecasting are still in the cradle.

No matter of what quality, forecasts are always needed, since expectations for the future need to be determined and met. One of the basic assumptions of the economic system that make its effect felt in the global scale is that, human beings are self-centered creatures who act on opportunist drives. Such philosophies have always impelled people to be egocentric. However, people can listen to their conscience instead. They can simply choose to be altruistic; they can choose to care about others and help them. It is possible to reverse such an understanding of selfishness by giving charity and fulfilling other responsibilities. Thus, the forecasts about the future depend on what is to be given priority. In other words, the science of forecast can serve a more humane philosophy.

Everything is finely balanced with appropriate measures in this universe. Everything is created with wisdom. From the perspective of forecasting studies, our efforts can in a way be seen as guesswork to learn about destiny. Although we can try to make predictions within certain limits, we can never ignore possible surprises which take place totally out of our control. Human beings are equipped with an ability to make decisions in the face of uncertainty. We are supposed to comprehend the philosophy of creation and try to discern the meaning of the pattern being woven by Providence.

Ertugrul Deniz is a freelance writer from Turkey with a PhD degree in mathematics.

References

• Makridakis, Spyros; Wheelwright, Steven; Hyndman, Rob J. (1998). Forecasting: methods and applications, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
• Fama, Eugene (1970). “Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work”. Journal of Finance 25 (2): 383–417.

Despite the extraordinary details, my story is quite ordinary. It is a story as quintessentially American as Henry Kissinger’s tale of arriving in New York after fleeing Nazi persecution or Madeleine Albright’s experience of seeking political asylum from the Czechoslovakian Communist Party. I was born in a Chicago hospital in the immediate days after my family fled Communist Vietnam on a 35-foot fishing boat. My mom gave me the nick-name “Nam-My,” literally “Vietnam-America” for being her first-American born child. Thus, I was different from the rest of the kids-simply by virtue of being born here. Unlike my siblings, whose early childhood memories consisted of eating plain rice with salt and hiding in underground shelters during bombings, I watched Rainbow Brite and Transformers before going to school every morning, ate Fruit Loops for breakfast, and had a regular supply of FDA-approved whole milk at my disposal- a luxury from the standpoint of my siblings who fled Vietnam with my parents in the early 1980s. My care-free childhood was like any other American kid – roller-skating madly up and down the two blocks outside of my house that made up my entire universe of a playground, playing Slip n’ Slide in my Latino neighborhood, fluent in Spanish slang phrases I did not know the equivalent to in English or Vietnamese, and catching fireflies at night on my porch. My childhood was bright and sunny and I had no idea at that time how different life would have been if it had not been for the heroic but excruciatingly difficult choice of one man out at sea nearly 30 years before: Captain Bell.

Captain Bell was a U.S. Navy captain aboard the USS Morton DD 948, an anti-submarine weapons destroyer ship deployed during the Vietnam War. His life intersected with mine on a warm day 100 miles into the South China Sea on June 9, 1982- the day he decided to defy the Navy’s orders not to pick up Vietnamese refugees. The orders he received to not pick up Vietnamese boat people made perfect sense: such practices would encourage people to continue risking their lives at sea to escape Vietnam. Yet, Captain Bell chose to defy these orders that day and through his single decision, I was born. After Captain Bell brought my family along with the other seventy other boat people to a Filipino refugee camp, my parents spent 8-9 months awaiting relocation to the United States. In the meantime, I must have been conceived because just days after leaving the refugee camp and arriving in the United States, I was born in Chicago without a single glimpse of this stormy chapter in my family’s history.

For as long as I can remember, mom went door-to-door in the freezing Chicago snow to clean homes and dad fixed bikes. Despite growing up in what later became a single parent household of four children with barely enough funds to rent someone’s basement to live in, I had always felt lucky to inherit all of the anecdotal stories my mother recounted of her life back in Vietnam. But just like many first-generation kids from an immigrant family, I struggled to figure out how to truly live up to my family’s expectations. Was I supposed to grow up and open a nail salon as 99% of the Vietnamese did in the United States? Was I supposed to do something more interesting with my life, something that would make my mother’s tumultuous journey here worth it? Should I spend my life fulfilling my filial duties to my family or go off on my own, become a self-made [wo]man and pull myself up by my own bootstraps? The burden of the past weighed heavily on my shoulders and I was desperate to find answers to my questions.

I searched far and near for answers, insight, and clues to unravel the past that I barely understood as a child. At 15 years old, I traveled and lived in Beijing hiking up the Great Wall of China and back down to the Yangtze River in search of any clues that would solve the mysteries of my past. In college, I lived in South Korea and stood at the edge of the demilitarized zone peering into North Korea to catch a glimpse of Communism at its best. Throughout my adventures, my family’s story motivated me to overcome poverty and racial discrimination in Chicago’s inner city, graduate cum laude from Northwestern University, and become the first in my family to attend law school. The stark contrast between my privileged life and that of my relatives left behind in Vietnam motivated me to later work with Vietnamese sex trafficking victims in Taiwan and to attend law school to continuing helping the most vulnerable segments of our society. From conception in a Filipino refugee tent to becoming the first attorney in my entire family lineage, I realize now that I would not be here at all had it not been for Captain Bell’s decision, a decision which altered the trajectory of many lives out at sea that day.

Most recently, this investigative process of piecing together my family history has helped me uncover the most valuable treasure I ever expected to find: Captain Bell himself. A casual internet search led me to discover that Captain Bell is still alive and living in sunny California. I recently emailed him to introduce myself as the product of his heroic decision in 1982. Nearly 28 years later through finding Captain Bell and uncovering more facts about what happened that day out at sea, I am discovering how much of a difference one person can make with even just one decision. My mother took a leap of faith by risking her life and fleeing Vietnam so that she would not have to live in a society without choices. Captain Bell defied orders to save a group of complete strangers in need. Suddenly, I realized that Captain Bell’s rescue story was not just another one of my mother’s Vietnam War stories of the past. Captain Bell was alive and by taking my own leap of faith, I could meet this man who caused my life be possible and now make his story a part of my own.

With only 72 hours left to live, the only conceivable way to spend my time would be with the two superheroes who literally and figuratively opened me the doors of life: my mom and Captain Bell. As a single mother of four-children and a hard-working nurse now in her fifties, my mom spends all day and night taking care of sick people. She deserves the world and has dreamed of visiting the hometown she left behind in North Vietnam in the 1970s. I would book First-class tickets to Vietnam to tour the town she left more than 40 years ago and has not had the time nor funds to return. The best part of this trip would be that it could allow me to spend meaningful time with my mom, writing down the tremendous war stories she’s lived through, using my art skills to draw a life-size portrait of the survivors aboard the USS Morton DD 948 on that day of their rescue, and passing my family history down to the next generation of Vietnamese-Americans. Next, I would give Captain Bell a ring and invite him to travel with me to see Vietnam, which has changed completely from the dark memories he likely remembers from fighting the Viet Cong during the war. I would organize a worldwide reunion for all of the ship-mates, refugees, and families connected to the USS Morton. The seventy Vietnamese boat people Captain Bell saved in 1982 and their children, grandchildren, maybe even great-grandchildren would all be in attendance. Aboard a beautiful ship docked near Vietnam, we would share our war stories, our sea stories, and our dreams for the future as Captain Bell’s rescue story is really simply a variation of the same stories many Americans have been telling for the past two hundred years. Yes, despite all the extraordinary details, my story is simply ordinary. And through my 72-hour trip to Vietnam with my mom and Captain Bell, it would all end the same way it began: complete strangers out at sea connected together by the fragile threads of history.

The heart is the home of God, clean it of others than Him,
So that the All-Merciful may descend into His home at night.

The couplet above, recorded by Ibrahim Haqqi of Erzurum in his Ma’rifetname (Book of Knowledge), expresses the intention of obtaining true love and His pleasure, and tells how to realize it. It concisely describes the way between decision and resolution and from resolution to destination. The only way to obtain peace of mind and be at rest without going to extremes and being exposed to spiritual trouble and pain is to seek the love and pleasure of God, and then order one’s life around this aim. Rumi says:

A heart devoid of the Friend and seeking Him cannot be freed from trouble and pain. [As for] a head in which there is no love of the Friend, do not attempt to find any meaning and value in it, for it consists of bones and skin.

Those who have set their hearts on Him and have decided to reach Him never neglect to follow a way toward Him and to meet the necessities of traveling on it. [1] Even if they turn their eyes from Him for a single moment to look to others, they sigh for a whole lifetime. How unfortunate is the one who lives unaware of a way leading to Him. What a great loss, impossible to compensate, it is to fall and get stuck on the way after taking it.

Decision first appears and develops in the heart, grows firmer and stronger as a feeling, and then becomes a very powerful drive directing one toward his or her destination. In this context, decision signifies an intention and resembles a seed sown in the heart’s soil. If the one who has this intention or seed in his or her heart receives help from God Almighty, the seed germinates and grows into an elaborate, fruitful tree. After a few steps traveled in decision, one finds resolution, which is defined as being determined to do something, steadfast in one’s pursuit, and consciously fulfilling all responsibilities undertaken. Resolution is the first step toward the “heavens” of reliance and surrender. The Qur’an describes this step and the final point to be reached: When you are resolved, rely on (or put your trust in) God (3:159). If this first step can be taken through reliance on and submission to God, then the road becomes level and easy to walk on, and one travels it as if flying through the air.

Decision and resolution are two important dimensions or functions of willpower. Every traveler who intends to make a long journey must stop at the station of decision and resolution to receive the permit or visa, given by God, in order to progress to higher stations. Only after this does the journey truly begin. One who has taken the wings of decision and resolution feels attracted toward the goal and, no longer advancing by his or her own power, is taken to it. A friend of God says: Whoever overflows with the desire to meet with God, despite his inability to fulfill the requirements of the way leading to his goal, God Himself comes to him. God then becomes his or her eyes with which to see, ears with which to hear, and tongue with which to speak.

For the traveler who flies along on the wings of decision and resolution, meeting with God means finding subsistence in or through annihilation. For those with whom God wills and desires to meet, it means subsistence within subsistence, [2] and they suffer no trouble or pain in the “virtuous circle,” [3] where they encounter good after good. In this circle pain changes into pleasure, and wrath or chastisement are manifested as favors. One who has reached this point always utters in pleasure: Whatever comes from You, whether it be a favor or punishment, is good. With a cup of resignation in one’s hand, he or she sips whatever comes from God, the Truth, as if it were the water of Paradise.

Notes

1. There is more than one way to God. It is said that there are as many ways or paths to God as there are breaths of people. Such a statement is said to express the differences in people’s temperaments and moods. In addition, spiritual orders use different rituals to help their initiates make progress on the spiritual path.
2. This phrase denotes the concept of compound subsistence, defined as a “firmer subsistence” and as “being well-versed or grounded in subsistence.”
3. This is the opposite of the “vicious circle” that so many people encounter in their daily lives.

A man is willing to die (why?), his family seems to have no objections (how come?), there is an institution assisting this family (how come?), it is being recorded and broadcast (what?!).

The controversial documentary stirred up a reaction in some religious circles and pro-life charities, as viewers discussed the ethics of broadcasting euthanasia in the days following this program. But what is so chilly about this video is not whether a network should broadcast it, but a man’s willingness to end his own life. If life had any meaning for this person, he would not be willing to cause his own death. If he meant anything to his family, they would never allow him to do it. This story is so desperate, so heartbreaking, that it leaves us without words.

Mary Lahaj of Boston shares with us a story in this issue that would counterbalance the hopelessness and dispel the dark clouds the above-mentioned documentary caused. “At God’s Door” is the story of a woman who was able to stand up on her own feet after a traumatic youth. Hers is a source of inspiration for many of us who have failed, or feel on the edge of a cliff at times, to rise up in belief for a new life.

Professor Anwar Alam from India reviews a book on a global movement of education and dialogue: The Gulen Movement, Civic Service Without Borders is one of a handful of must-read books that authoritatively deals with this social phenomenon—called the Hizmet movement—affiliated with successful schools, dialogue activities, and relief organizations around the world.

An interview with Paul Davies lays down some of the “Great Questions of Existence” and shares with us how science can contribute to our making sense of them.

The Lead Article expounds on the rights of God and human rights, and how they are related. “Life” is one such right, and the Giver of Life certainly has something to say about this.

In a study conducted by social psychologists Tversky and Kahneman, people were asked to guess the percentage of African nations that were members of the United Nations. Two groups were first asked to estimate whether this number was lower or higher than a threshold: the first group was asked whether it is more or less than 45 percent and the second group was asked whether it is more or less than 65 percent. Then both groups were asked to give their estimates of the actual percentage. The researchers demonstrated that the group that was given the lower threshold estimated a lower value for the actual percentage of African nations that are members of the United Nations. The group that was given the higher threshold estimated a higher percentage. The pattern has held in other experiments for a wide variety of different subjects of estimation. A bias in the estimation of African members of the United Nations may not sound like a big deal, but how about decisions that affect people’s lives seriously?

Consider sentencing in court trials. Social psychologist Mussweiler and colleagues asked trial judges with more than 15 years of experience to consider sentencing demands made by non-experts in a legal crime case before issuing a final sentence. The two sentencing demands were 34 months and 12 months. The judges, despite their experience and despite the fact that the crime was the same, were influenced by the demands. Judges who considered the high demand of 34 months prior to their decision gave final sentences that were almost 8 months longer than judges who considered a low demand of 12 months initially. If prior exposure to a piece of information can make a difference as much as 8 more months in prison, then we ought to know what is going on. The examples above illustrate a psychological heuristic known as “anchoring and adjustment.” The heuristic suggests that when faced with a decision-making or estimation situation, people start with an anchor, or a reference point, and make adjustments to it to reach their final estimate. The anchor serves as a first approximation and then the person makes adjustments to it to reach a final estimate or decision. Why does the human mind utilize this heuristic? The answer is simple—we do not always have a whole lot of information to reach an accurate estimate or best decision.

Therefore, the mind sometimes needs shortcuts, especially under pressing circumstances. To understand this process, let’s have a look at the limitations of human cognition. Models of human cognition Cognitive psychologists and sociologists have worked to develop models of human social cognition. These models emphasize four aspects of our social cognition, which is the way we perceive others. The first is the role of prior knowledge versus information immediately available. For example, when we see a policeman directing the traffic, we use our prior knowledge in our perception. We may assume that he is carrying a gun and he has communications equipment to talk with his station. We deduce these features from our prior knowledge about the traffic police, even if we may not be in a position to observe that particular policeman’s gun or communications device. Relying on prior information in our judgments is called “top-down” processing as opposed to “bottom-up” or data-driven processing. Typically, relying on top-down processing, such as relying on stereotypes, requires fewer processing resources.

The second aspect is the limitation of our cognitive processing capacity. The human cognitive system is modeled to consist of our sensory organs, a sensory register (memory) that temporarily stores our perceptions of external stimuli, a short-term memory, a long-term memory, attention resources and executive control processes. When we receive information in the form of audio-visual or other sensory stimuli, they are processed by our cognitive system and transferred to our short-term memory. Through a process of encoding and categorization, the information is organized and stored in the long-term memory. A part of the long-term memory is “active” or readily accessible. Our further use of information in our long-term memory activates the information, and the lack of use deactivates it, making it less readily accessible. Our behavioral response results from our processing of information. According to this information-processing model of human cognition, the amount of information that can be processed by our cognitive system is restricted in terms of storage, flow and inference (Huitt, 2003).

The third aspect is the amount of cognitive processing that is determined by capacity (amount of free resources) and motivation. Factors such as interest, importance, and relevance determine the motivation to allocate more cognitive resources. We are more likely to devote more cognitive processing resources to subjects that are more interesting, important or relevant in our judgment. The fourth aspect is the interplay between automatic and controlled processing. Automatic processes require fewer resources. Given our limited processing capacity, time and other types of constraints have consequences for our cognitive processing. Under constraints, most individuals tend to simplify their processing by relying on less information, relying on automatic cognitive processes as opposed to conscious ones, or relying on prior information as opposed to information available in the circumstances. Anchoring is one such a simplification. The nature of the situation we are facing will determine which of these mechanisms will be selected. They will be reused or abandoned depending on whether they provide a sound basis for our responses to the social environment. If the simplifications lead to interpretations that harm us, we are likely to abandon them. If, on the other hand, there is no harm or there is a benefit, then we are likely to reuse those simplifications.

Anchoring effect Anchoring is defined as the effect of a prior judgment of an object, the anchor, on our future judgments regarding another object. These judgments may be about a numerical value, a probability, or even a moral or legal judgment. As an example, consider the situation where people are asked whether the population of a city is greater than or smaller than a value. Let’s say two groups of people are asked the same question with two anchors: Group A is asked whether the population of Houston is more than or less than 500,000. Group B is asked whether the population of Houston more than or less than 2,000,000. In this example, the values of 500,000 and 2,000,000 serve as anchors. Both groups are then asked: What is your estimate of the population of Houston? Experiments indicate that the people who were given the lower anchor on average give a lower estimate for the population and vice versa. How does anchoring happen? Cognitive psychologists tell us that human judgment is essentially relative or comparison based, even if we are not asked to make a comparison explicitly. So, in evaluating the present object or person, our minds search for an anchor. A particular anchor may be selected because it is readily accessible, because it is suggested to us, or “self-generated via an insufficient adjustment process” (Mussweiler et al). Our prior cognitive processing of the anchor increases the accessibility of anchor-consistent knowledge, which influences our subsequent judgments. For example, when we meet a person from a country, the first person we met from that country may become our anchor. If we had a positive experience with the first person, we are likely to interpret the actions of this new person with a positive light. While cognitive heuristics such as anchoring help us make quick decisions under constraints, they may also lead to errors. The price we pay for the economy provided by the heuristics is “systematically biased judgments under certain conditions.” (Bless et al., p. 24). For instance, a car dealer may offer you a very high price as an anchor and ask you to make a counter offer. Experiments have demonstrated that under such circumstances, the value of the initial offer has a significant effect on what people will be willing to pay for the final price of the car. If the initial offer is very high, the customer is likely to accept a higher negotiated price and vice versa. The anchoring effect can also be observed when we take a few characteristics of a person and consciously or subconsciously fit them to a stereotype.

In such cases, we may misperceive their motivations or misunderstand their circumstances. Sometimes the anchor can be manipulated by some person other than ourselves, as in the case of the car dealer. Sometimes, we may pick the anchor unintentionally based on information obtained from the mass media. As the mass media tend to focus on rare events that tend to be negative, the stereotypes formed based on information solely derived from the mass media may be misleading (Said, 1997). What are some of the lessons we can derive from our discussion of the anchoring effect? For one, we need to point the mirror at ourselves and ask: Are we forming stereotypes of others that may be inaccurate? Are we influenced by the anchoring effect in our judgment of other people? To see whether we may have anchors for evaluating people of different backgrounds consider your initial thoughts about Christians, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, Americans, Russians, Asians, Africans, Mexicans, etc. Are these anchors based on scientific data or news media coverage of events or personal encounters with one or more individuals? It may be infeasible to try to collect encyclopedic information about every nationality, religion, or culture that we encounter. But in matters that impact our society we ought to do a better job of researching a diversity of resources. But perhaps a more important lesson is this—the anchoring effect is here to stay as part of the reality of human cognition. If we would like to provide accurate, reliable information to people about ourselves, our culture and values, we should reach them before they form a negative anchor or stereotype. If we would like our cultural background, religion, or values to be understood without distortion, we need to reach out to as many people as possible around us and interact with them. We need to hold conversations, and share meaningful experiences with them to anchor their future judgments in an accurate reference point. The anchoring effect is demonstrated to be pervasive and robust in psychology. It is not likely to disappear in the foreseeable future. However, we do have the opportunity to reach out and help form positive anchors for better human relationships.

Further reading

• Bless, H., Fiedler, K., Strack, F. 2004. Social Cognition, New York: Taylor and Francis.
• Huitt, W. 2003. The Information Processing Approach to Cognition. Educational Psychology Interactive. Valdosta, GA: Valdosta State University.
• Mussweiler, T., & Strack, F. 2001. The Semantics of Anchoring. Organizational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, 86, 234–255.
• Said, E. 1997. Covering Islam: How the Media and the Experts Determine How We See the Rest of the World, New York: Random House.

THE CASPIAN PIPELINE DECISION

After the break-up of the Soviet Union and the emergence of independent states, the Caspian region has become a magnet of interest for different powers, including China, Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the United States. Five states border the Caspian Sea: Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have vast oil resources around the Caspian Sea, while Turkmenistan has significant natural gas reserves. However, as the region is landlocked, pipelines have to be constructed to transfer these resources to external markets. Since these three states have neither the expertise nor the financial resources for oil exploration, extraction, and transfer, they have to rely on foreign investment. After the pipeline is in place, the cash flow generated by oil and gas exports will be of great importance in the economic development of these states.

But not so fast. The situation has proven to be a very complex one involving the status of the Caspian Sea, regional disputes, and the conflicting economic and political interests of the countries involved. Due to the complexity of the decision and the billions of dollars at stake, the Azerbaijan International Operating Company’s (AIOC) feasibility report was delayed three times last year, which also delayed any decision of the final pipeline route.’1 This article investigates some of the issues surrounding the Caspian oil pipeline debate.

RESERVES

First, just how much oil is lying under the Caspian Basin? Early estimates of around 200 billion barrels predicted that the region would be another Persian Gulf.2 However, exploratory oil wells turned out to be disappointing. A conservative study by the James Baker Institute estimates proven reserves at 15 to 30 billion barrels.3 On the other hand, some experts argue that these numbers are misleadingly low. A reasonable estimate would be somewhere between 60 and 100 billion barrels. More than half of these reserves lies under Kazakhstan, and most of the rest lie elsewhere.4

Two main oil pipelines will be built and brought on line to serve the region up to 2010. At the present time, the only pipeline that has reached the final stages of negotiation is the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline for oil from Kazakhstan to the Russian port of Novorossysk.5 After this, the decision concerning the main oil export pipeline route from Baku (Azerbaijan) to a port, from where the oil will be transferred to external markets by tankers, gets complicated. There are competing proposals for this route from Baku, which include6:

• Novorossysk: To the north, a main oil export pipeline across Daghestan and Chechnya to Russia’s port of Novorossysk.

• China: To the east, there is a proposal to build an oil pipeline from eastern Kazakhstan’s Uzen field to western China as part of an overall $9.5 billion deal supported by CNPC, China’s state oil company CNPC.

• Supsa: To the north again, this route links Baku to Supsa, a Georgian port on Black Sea.

• Ceyhan: To the west, oil pipelines transiting from Baku to Ceyhan with links to cross-Caspian lines from oil and gas fields in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The route originates in Baku, enters Georgia, and reaches the southern Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan through eastern Turkey.

• Iran: To the south, an oil pipeline from the Caspian states across Iran, to a new port on the Gulf of Oman. Shipping oil by tankers or another alternative from Tabriz to Ceyhan has also been proposed by Iran.

All of these pipeline options are technically possible; most are commercially feasible at some volume. We now turn to the specifics of those routes.

THE ALTERNATIVES

China: This route has not been considered seriously by either the states or the companies. First of all, Chinese companies cannot provide competitive deals, possibly due to the recent economic recession. Second, the pipeline will be much longer and more expensive than the other alternatives. Third, China is primarily linked with Kazakhstan, and for transferring oil from Azerbaijan to Kazakhstan (or directly to China) some real challenges remain: the pipeline has to pass either under the Caspian Sea (which is itself highly questionable, given the debate over the Caspian Sea’s status) or pass through disputed territories. Fourth, Asian markets are not the best place to export oil, since European markets will probably pay more.7

Supsa: For early oil, TEKFEN (a Turkish construction company) began construction of a 380 km. pipeline from Baku to Supsa. But as this pipeline, completed and opened in April 1999, will not be sufficient for the main export, a larger one along the same route should be built. Should this route be chosen, it will be the shortest route and, not surprisingly, the cheapest. Its price tag is $1.2 billion.8 The construction cost may be lower if the pipeline passes trough Armenia, rather than going around it. However, the long-lasting conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia makes this unlikely.

On the other hand, Georgia is not an ideal pipeline-transit country. Since achieving its independence in 1991, numerous territorial conflicts and separatist movements have taken place, all of which increase the risk of pipeline sabotage and other political risks. Russia currently supplies military support to Abkhazia in its independence struggle against the Georgian government.9 With the reestablishment of Russia’s extensive military basing rights in Georgia, the support apparently ceased, but most experts argue that Russia is still supporting, either directly or tacitly, regional instability to block pipeline alternatives through Georgia and to promote its own route (Novorossisk).

Another problem with the Supsa route relates to the Bosphorous Straits of Turkey. According to the 1936 Montreux Convention, tanker passage through the Straits is free. However, Turkey points to tightening political and physical constraints, as well as sharply increasing tanker accidents threatening the environment in Istanbul,’10 its most populated city. Turkey can certainly make the passage extremely difficult for tankers within the convention, by requiring extensive precautionary measures and removing their passage priority, causing tankers to wait for days before passing through the Straits. Most experts argue that Turkey is using the straits as a political lever to promote its own route (Ceyhan). But still, this uncertainty adds another variable to the calculation of pipeline companies.

Novorossisk: The 452 km. pipeline,11 which is estimated to cost $2 billion,12 starts at Baku, reaches the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossisk across Daghestan and Chechnya. Although cheap, this pipeline still faces the Straits problem mentioned above.

Although avoiding Georgia, this route has its own problems. Disagreements on distributing transit fees between Russia’s central and regional authorities may hinder negotiations. Russia does not have a particularly bright history regarding pipeline management. Moreover, the transfer may be subject to frequent disruptions due to instability in the north Caucasus. If Russia decides to bypass Chechnyian territories by an extension through Daghestan, there will be an added risk of pipeline sabotage by the Chechens.13 All these, when added to overcrowded port facilities and poor weather conditions at Novorossisk, make this route even less attractive.

Furthermore, there are political and economic factors to consider. From an influence point of view, most Central Asian republics have been under Russian influence for centuries. They still have economic, cultural, and military ties with Russia, which is anxious to maintain its influence in these republics for both security and economic reasons. Those republics dependent on Russia will pose much less danger, not to mention benefits from economic relations. On the other hand, the Central Asian republics want to be less and less dependent on Russia and discover their own identity by stepping out of the shadow of a now-defunct empire. Not surprisingly, the Azerbaijan government has expressed its reluctance concerning the Novorossisk route more than once. From a strategic point of view, Russia wants to keep her monopoly for oil transfer in the region so that it can be used as a strategic lever in the future. Economically, transit fees will be more than welcome in an economically depressed Russia. Furthermore, Russia will be able to purchase at lower rates than those in the international markets.

Ceyhan: The total length will be approximately 1,730 km (468 km in Azerbaijan, 225 km in Georgia, and 1,037 km in Turkey14). It is also an expensive alternative; estimates place its total cost at around $3 billion. The latest feasibility study, undertaken by a German company, put a price tag of $2.3 billion.15 The oil will serve to offset Turkey’s energy shortages, as well as giving it the economic advantage of transit fees.

The Ceyhan route has been favored by Azerbaijan, which wants to avoid giving Russia any influence over its resources. Azerbaijan is also seeking to avoid the proliferation of political Islam (from Iran) in Azerbaijan, thus undermining the possibility of an Iranian route. As for the Supsa route, it has the same Straits problem mentioned above. Thus, President Haydar Aliyev has repeatedly and publicly expressed his willingness for the Ceyhan route.14 However, his final decision will depend on the AIOC’s feasibility report. It is therefore considered unlikely that he will insist on Ceyhan route, if companies find the Ceyhan route to be economically less attractive. After all, the companies and not Azerbaijan are going to pay for the construction. The final route decision therefore will be a joint decision of the AIOC and President Aliyev.

The United States has also been publicly favoring the Ceyhan route.16 The reasoning is as follows:

• The pipeline goes directly into the Mediterranean Sea, thus avoiding straits and the Persian Gulf. This will serve to of the supply of energy, which is an American goal. So far, a significant number of major fields lie in the Persian Gulf; unfortunately, the United States does not have the best of relations with some of the states in that region. Russia already has control over Kazakh oil and it would be unwise to leave Azeri oil to the Russian monopoly.

• Turkey has been the United States’ ally in the region for a long time, and is closer to United States than Russia and Iran.

• As a democratic country and a supporter of free-market economies, Turkey’s influence on the Central Asian republics would be much more positive than that of Russia and Iran. The proliferation of Iranian-style political Islam may be particularly dangerous, whereas Turkey’s secular version of Islam is much more preferred, according to the Clinton administration.

From a security viewpoint, the Turkish Army has been securing eastern Anatolia since 1998 against the activities of the Kurdish terrorist organization PKK. The organization’s leader Abdullah Ocalan was recently captured in Kenya, which has considerably improved the prospects for regional security. On the other hand, Georgia’s problem with instability is also valid for Ceyhan.

Iran: Iran has proposed several routes. In general, those routes are less expensive than Ceyhan but more expensive than the other alternatives. There are no acute instabilities in the region. However, American sanctions directly affect Caspian pipeline development in Iran, notably through the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA). The goal of the 1996 law is to press for a change in Iran’s foreign policy, which was widely criticized as being supportive of terrorism and weapons proliferation as well as undermining the Middle East peace process. In practical terms, the ILSA prohibits direct foreign investment in Iran’s energy capability and infrastructure, and applies to America business as well as third parties.17

The United States remains strongly opposed to an Iranian route. As mentioned, such a route is not in the best interest of Azerbaijan either, due to the concerns of Iranian-style political Islam.

CONCLUSION

In recognition of the growing stress on the Ceyhan route, Georgia has aligned with Turkey, Azerbaijan, and the United States to push for the Ceyhan alternative. On the other hand, Armenia has aligned with Russia and Iran to oppose the Ceyhan route (or for that matter, any route) that will benefit Azerbaijan (its enemy). The Armenian government argues that Azerbaijan will use the money from oil exports to increase its military build-up against Armenia. Iran and Russia are opposing the Ceyhan route, for rules out their own routes. As clearly seen, Russia, Armenia, and Iran have no common interest whatsoever, except blocking the Ceyhan route to promote their own conflicting interests.

On the other hand, companies are in an awkward situation. The United States and Azerbaijan are increasing their political power on the companies for the Ceyhan route, whereas companies find this route more expensive when compared to other options. They also argue that current proven oil reserves do not justify the construction of such an expensive pipeline. They say that the oil found may never be able to fill the pipeline. Another factor is that oil prices are at their lowest level in 20 years. The expenses will not be justified unless oil export profits justify the main export pipeline expenses. Thus, they are playing a wait-and-see game, to see whether more oil will be found or whether oil prices will increase. The debates around the Caspian pipeline are likely to continue next year, and a win-win deal involving all the Caspian states seems nowhere near.

FOOTNOTES

1. David Filipov, “Caspian Port’s Oil Gush Trickling,” Boston Globe, 10 February 1999, sec. A, p. 1.
2. R. E. Manning and J. A. Meyers, “Dream of Oil Drives Diplomacy,” Los Angeles Times, 1 November 1998, sec. M, p. 2.
3. The James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, “Unlocking the Assets: Energy, and the Future of Central Asia and the Caucasus. A Political, Economic and Cultural Analysis,” Rice University Research Report (April 1998): 1.
4. The Energy Information Administration, “International Energy Outlook: 1998,” Research Report (1998): 34. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo98/home.html
5. Heslin, S., Key Constraints to Caspian Pipeline Development: Status, Significance and Outlook. Research Report for The James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University (1998): 4.
6. Ibid., 4, 5.
7. The James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, “Unlocking the Assets,” 3.
8. http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/contract/cox7l803.htm
9. H. Cemal, “Petrol Cografyasinda Yeni Kavsak Noktasi Turkiye,” Sabah Turkish Daily Newspaper, 3 October 1998.
10. Heslin, Key Constraints to Caspian Pipeline Development, 16.
11. “Kazakhstan Approves an Oil Pipeline Study,” Journal of Commerce, 30 October 1998, sec. A, p. 10.
12. Cemal, “Petrol Cografyasinda Yeni Kavsak Noktasi Turkiye.”
13. Heslin, Key Constraints to Caspian Pipeline Development, 7.
14. “Five Nations Endorse Caspian Oil Pipeline,” San Francisco Chronicle, 30 October 1998, sec. A, p. 14.
15. “Baku Ceyhan’a bir adim daha,” Yeni Yuzyil Turkish Daily Newspaper, 7 July 1998.
16. “Four Former Soviet Republics Join Turkey on Pipeline,” The Orlando Sentinel, 30 October 1998, sec. A, p. 20.
17. “U.S. Has Impact on Pipeline Route from Caspian Sea,’ Wall Street Journal, 30 October 1998, sec. A, p. 17.
18. Heslin, Key Constraints to Caspian Pipeline Development, 17-19.

There are different definitions of euthanasia, each putting the emphasis on different parts of the concept. The word itself is derived from a compound of two Greek words-“eu” and “thanatos”-meaning literally a good death. It is generally understood today as the intentional putting to death by artificial means of persons with incurable or painful disease (Mason & McCall Smith, 1994, p.316). The decision to end a person’s life may involve direct interventions (active euthanasia) or withholding of life-prolonging measures (passive euthanasia). If the decision reflects the person’s own consciously and expressly declared wishes, it is called voluntary euthanasia. Where the person does not know about the decision and has not expressly approved it in advance it is called non-voluntary euthanasia. Another type of euthanasia, namely involuntary euthanasia, occurs whenever such a decision is implemented against the express wishes of the individual. (See Harris, 1985, p.82.)

Those who argue in favour of euthanasia usually presuppose a person’s absolute ownership of his or her body and life; as people are entitled to dispose as they choose of the things they own, the analogy is that they may also choose the circumstances most appropriate for them to ‘dispose’ of ‘their’ life. This is the rationale behind voluntary euthanasia.

However, the ownership (or property right) of humans over their bodies is not a property right in the usual sense of the term. Munzer (1990) defines various types of ‘ownership’, ‘property right’ etc. and concludes: “Most body rights are personal rather than property rights; examples are rights not to be murdered, not to be searched without a warrant or just cause, not to be compelled to testify against oneself, not to be libelled or slandered, to speak freely, and to exclude others from sexual or other physical contacts”. However, he says: “Some body rights are property rights whether weak, such as the right to donate an organ upon death, or strong, such as the right of publicity or the right to sell blood or semen ; but these weak and strong property rights are neither so numerous nor so central as to establish that person’s ‘own’ themselves” (ibid., p.57). Evidently, it is not very easy to propose or prohibit euthanasia by using the ‘property rights’ argument. (Perhaps we can summarise the issue by saying that the language of ‘property rights’ is appropriate only in the context of commercial/contractual transactions. If it ever was, it is no longer thought proper to speak of buying or selling human beings outright; we only speak nowadays of buying or selling an individual’s time or skills.)

Voluntary euthanasia has been likened to suicide in many respects. Therefore almost all religious traditions reject it; they reject the idea of terminating one’s life, and declare it to be one of the greatest misdeeds (Smoker, 1986, p.96). According to this understanding, our lives and our bodies are given by God. We are stewards and not owners of our lives, hence to contrive the ending of our own lives or to harm our bodies knowingly is a sign of disrespect to the ‘real owner’.

Roman Catholic theologians have reflected on matters of death and dying for centuries. The Sacred Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith’s 1980 declaration on Euthanasia, approved by Pope John Paul II, states: 1) None can make an attempt on the life of an innocent person without opposing God’s love for that person, without violating a fundamental right, and therefore without committing a crime of the utmost gravity; 2) Everyone has the duty to lead his or her life in accordance with God’s plan. That life is entrusted to the individual as a good that must bear fruit already here on earth, but that finds its full perfection only in eternal life; 3) Intentionally causing one’s own death, or suicide, is therefore equally as wrong as murder; such an action on the part of a person is to be considered as rejection of God’s sovereignty and loving plan. Therefore euthanasia is a violation of the divine law, an offence against the dignity of the human person, a crime against life, and an attack on humanity.

Among the Protestant denominations that oppose voluntary euthanasia are the Lutherans, Mennonites, Methodists, Presbyterians, Mormons, Jehovah’s Witnesses, Episcopalians, Christian Scientists and Baptists. The rationale for rejecting the option of euthanasia or assisted suicide is based generally on the maxim, “only God can give life and only God should take it”.

The four branches of Judaism-Orthodox, Conservative, Reform, and Reconstructionist-all forbid active euthanasia. The ancient Torah and Talmud did not address euthanasia or assisted suicide. However, in recent years, rabbis have answered questions about death and dying in “responsa” that have come to be considered authoritative. For example, a responsum from the Reform Jewish tradition addressing euthanasia (Bettam, 1950) declares: “Human life is more than a biological phenomenon; it is the gracious gift of God, it is the in-breathing of His spirit. Man is more than a minute particle of the great mass known as society: “The spirit of God hath made me,” avers Job in the midst of his suffering, “and the breath of the Almighty gives me life” (Job 33:4). Thus, human life, coming from God, is sacred, and must be nurtured with great care. And man is endowed with unique and hidden worth and must be treated with reverence.”

Islam also opposes euthanasia. The Qur’an and Sunnah, the authoritative sources of Islamic law, do not speak specifically about euthanasia. However, according to the Qur’an God is the Creator of life. Consequently, persons do not own their lives and have no right to end them or to ask others to do so. The Prophet Muhammad is reported as saying: “None of you should wish to die because a harm befalls him. If he is so determined, let him pray: ‘Oh God, let me live as long as life is good for me, and let me die if death is good for me’.” This saying might be interpreted as a permission for euthanasia or deliberate termination of life, if the phrasing of the supplication were “let me kill myself” or “let me be killed” rather than “let me die”, which cannot be so interpreted. A contemporary Islamic scholar has argued: “God may deprive an individual of something he or she values, but grant that individual a manifold return for that loss in the Hereafter. By means of that loss, God makes you feel your need, your powerlessness, your poverty in relation to Him. In this way, He makes you turn to Him with a weightier sincerity, a fuller heart, and so makes you worthier of His Blessing and Favour. Thus your apparent loss is in reality a gain” (Gulen, 1994, p.162). One recent study indicated that the degree of religious observance is a factor that influences the desire for maximal medical intervention. It is argued that fundamental beliefs of the more religious elements of society, regardless of which religion, tend towards an approach in which sanctity of life, rather than quality of life, becomes the prime determinant (Hammerman, 1997). Therefore, it is not surprising, among believing people, to come across those who are remarkably contented in spite of circumstances of great hardship, suffering and pain.

One of the primary things that makes euthanasia unacceptable is the involvement of a second party. Since life is inherently valuable, no one should play a part, directly or indirectly, in terminating a life. Since 1961, it is not illegal in Britain to commit suicide, although it is punishable to help an individual to kill himself. However it is claimed that when the life is objectively meaningless, rather than subjectively, the termination of life and help for it can be justified, and in euthanasia cases lives are generally objectively meaningless. Kohl (1987) made the distinction between these two as follows: “A life is subjectively meaningless when an individual earnestly believes he or she cannot possess, can no longer possess, or cannot achieve, any goals. A life is objectively meaningless when any of the aforementioned intersensual and intersubjective conditions exists and is known, or is capable of being known, to be irreversible.” In another article, after stating that meaningful life is a precondition for a good life, Kohl (1979) said: “An ideally good life is like an ideal meal. What most men desire is a splendid meal with a splendid dessert. So, when the dessert is far from splendid, it is good for the person, as well as for those who must take care of that person, to terminate the life. But, as was mentioned in the report by the working party which reviewed the BMA s guidelines on euthanasia, termination of life requires doctors to examine their ethical convictions rather than their scientific ones. And throughout the many shifts of scientific opinion in medicine, one pervasive feature of medical practice has remained unchanged-the conviction that human life is of inestimable value and ought to be protected and cherished (BMA, 1986, pp.l8-19). But nowadays, as with many other things, these convictions are also under discussion, and tend to he challenged.

Although there is a trend toward legalising the practice of euthanasia, strong resistance to it persists. Here are some of the traditional arguments against euthanasia. One concern is that, along with the justifiable cases of terminally ill people asking for and receiving a quick, merciful death, there would inevitably be cases in which euthanasia would be clearly wrong. Another is that, a law legalising euthanasia might well be abused, with some person’s life being ended, against his or her consent, for a motive other than mercy. We also know that diagnoses and prognoses of a disease can be wrong. For instance, predicting how long someone may live with cancer is very difficult at best. Some whom we expected to die in a few months might live on for years, conversely some might live a much shorter time than we, the care-givers, anticipate. Another valid concern is that the right to die may well become a duty to die. For instance, frail, disabled elderly people who are financial and emotional burdens on their families may feel some pressure to ask for euthanasia. Finally, even apart from moral and ethical considerations, legalising euthanasia has the potential to weaken and damage the relationship between patients and physicians. (See Cundiff, 1992.)

Bearing in mind that euthanasia is, all said and done, the termination by one means or another of a human life, the justification for it will always be questionable. It needs to be questioned and debated very closely indeed by the concerned public, as well as by health care professionals, lawyers, theologians and politicians.

References

• Bettarn, I, (1950) Euthanasia, American Reform Responsa, 60, PP. 107-20. [The responsa discussed were drafted in answer to a bill signed by 2000 physicians in New York State in 1948 supporting legalization of euthanasia.]
• BMA [1986) Report of the Working Party to Review the BMA’s Guidance on Euthanasia, London, pp.16-19.
• Cundiff, D. (1992) Euthanasia is not the Answer, Humana Press, New Jersey.
• Gulen, F. (1994) Questions, Truestar Publications Ltd, London.
• Hammerman, C. (1997) Decision-making in the Critically III Neonate: Cultural Background v. Individual Life Experiences, Journal of Medical Ethics, 23, pp.164-9.
• Harris, J. (1985) The Value of Life, Routledge, London.
• Kohl, M. (1979) Voluntary Ending of Life in de Vries, A. & Carmi, A. (edst) The Dying Human, Turtledove Publication, Ramat can, pp. 253-62.
• Kohl, M. (1987) Moral Arguments For and Against Maximally Treating the Detective Newborn, in McMillan, R.C., Engelbardt Jr, H.T. and Spicker, S.F. (eds) Euthanasia and the Newborn, D. Reidel Pub. Comp. Dordrecht, pp.233-52.
• Mason, J.K and McCall Smith, R.A. (1994) Law and Medical Ethics, Butterwortbs, London.
• Munzer, S.R. (1990). A Theory of Property, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
• Sacred Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith (1980) Declaration on Eurhanasia, Vatican City.
• Smoker, B. (1986) A Rejoinder to Religious and Non-Consequentialist Objections in Downing, A.B. and Smoker, B. (eds) Voluntary Euthanasia: Experts Debate the Right to Die, Peter Owen, London.