Destruction is easy. Those who want to destroy something should first know how to construct something. Otherwise, the shortcomings that emerge after destruction will be impossible to solve. Some issues are not open to destruction unless a clear alternative has been set forth. I think one of the most significant missions of the prophets was to set the balance pertaining to this issue. They exposed all the fallacies in society, and exclaimed bravely, “this is incorrect.” They did so convincingly, looking people in the eye. They immediately offered alternative “corrections,” and prevented any sort of chaos or shortcomings. That is, they handled every matter on both positive and negative fronts and did not allow any kind of mental or sensual abyss to emerge. Without plans and projects of “construction” that have been built upon a firm foundation, any sort of destruction or demolition will be reckless.

As a matter of fact, simply due to the lack of this approach, sometimes individuals, sometimes families, sometimes states – in a direct proportion to the dimension of the mischief committed – are destined to collapse. The Ottomans primarily come to our minds, if we want to examine the issue from a state or national perspective. Sometimes, sultans were dethroned with thoughts of replacing them with better ones. But these absences created a power gap, they couldn’t find better rulers, and the people yearned for the old sultans. Because of this, the Ottomans were severely weakened, creating a power vacuum in the region.

It’s with deep regret that we must acknowledge this sort of historical mistake is still being committed. Without alternative, precise plans and projects in place, states or governments are being erased. That is, opposition consists only of loaded slogans and criticism. If they were asked how things really should have been, they would not know. A state or government may surely make mistakes. It should be open to criticism. But that criticism should never amount to, “let’s destroy it and then figure out an alternative.” Such a thought would weaken the state and could even cause the total loss of national credibility.

Believers should have no affiliation with those pursuing incorrect actions. To prevent a serious dissolution of national will, and against the dangers presented, they should always do what is expected of them. To those who chase them and torment them, believers should merely utter, “everyone acts according to his own character” (Qur’an 17:84). On this issue, balance is very important.

In conclusion, everything should be done in accordance with the proper rules. And while endeavoring to construct, the utmost care should be taken to avoid total destruction. Shortcomings should be avoided by heeding historical lessons. And the nation and state should not be recklessly sacrificed.

Until today, almost all of your organs and systems introduced themselves and explained the great artistry in their creation along with their wisdom and precision. Certainly, these were not just for your information. Of course, it is important for you to know about your organs and their duties, and for you to live accordingly with this knowledge. However, its main purpose has been to introduce you to your Lord, who created you and all living and nonliving things perfectly. Just like seeing a work of art and not appreciating the artist is a twisted view, so is seeing the art exhibited on the body of the world’s most dignified entity, the human being, and not appreciating our Lord. It would just be a worthless and pointless heap of knowledge.

Today, we will look at the human body statistically, have our last lesson, and say goodbye.

Before we talk about the systems and organs that make up your body, you should know that it is a blessing that God didn’t leave you in nonexistence, and put you into existence. Then, you should know that it is also a blessing that He didn’t leave you as inorganic molecules, but created you as a living organism. For you to understand better, I would like you to look carefully at the delicate measures of the numbers I will give you in the tables below and to realize how high your value has been lifted.

The weights and percentages of inorganic elements in a 70 kg human body:

Oxygen…….. 44 kg……. 63%
Carbon……. 14 kg……. 20%
Hydrogen……. 7 kg……. 10%
Nitrogen……. 2.1 kg……. 3%
Calcium……. 1 kg……. 1.5%
Phosphorus……. 700 g……. 1%
Potassium……. 170 g……. 0.25%
Sulfur….. 140 g……. 0,2%
Chlorine……. 70 g……. 0.1%
Sodium….. 70 g……. 0.1%
Magnesium.. 30 g……. 0.04%
Iron…… 3 g……. 0.004%
Copper…… 300 mg……. 0.0005%
Manganese….. 100 mg……. 0.0002%
Iodine……. 30 mg……. 0.00004%

The total percentage of trace elements found in the blood serum and in enzymes, such as zinc, cobalt, cadmium, molybdenum, nickel, lead, fluorine, selenium, mercury, and aluminum, is 0.80526%.

As you can see, 76% of you (53.1 kg of oxygen, hydrogen, and nitrogen) are gases that dissolve into the air. These aren’t worth anything because there are plenty of them in the air. From 14 cents per kilogram, 14 kilograms of carbon (coal) is worth around 2 dollars. One kilogram calcium (lime) is worth around 12 cents. 140 grams of chlorine and sodium together (salt) is worth around 3 cents. All of the other elements (such as iron, copper, and magnesium) are worth a handful of soil, because they are found easily in soil, and there is only very little of them in the human body. So in total, your elements are worth $2.15.

Let’s increase your value a little bit! Our Lord didn’t leave you as elements; He turned you into organic material with very large molecules, such as protein, fat, carbohydrates, and vitamins. That gives us the table below:
Organ…. Water (%) …. Fat (%)…… Protein (%)…. Ash (%)
Skin…… 64.68…… 13.00…… 22.10…… 0.68
Skeleton…… 31.81…… 17.18…… 18.93…… 28.91
Teeth…… 5.00…… 0.00…… 23.00…… 70.90
Skeletal muscle…… 79.52…… 3.35…… 16.50…… 0.93
Brain-Spinal cord…… 73.33…… 12.68…… 12.06…… 1.37
Liver…… 71.46…… 10.35…… 16.19…… 0.88
Heart…… 73.69…… 9.26…… 15.88…… 0.80
Lungs…… 83.74…… 1.54…… 13.38…… 0.95
Spleen…… 78.69…… 1.19…… 17.81…… 1.13
Kidneys…… 79.47…… 4.01…… 14.69…… 0.96
Pancreas…… 73.08…… 13.08…… 12.69…… 0.93
Intestines…… 79.07…… 6.24…… 13.19…… 0.86
Adipose tissue…… 50.09….. 42.44…… 7.06…… 0.51
Other tissues…… 70.40…… 12.39…… 16.06…… 1.01
Blood and lymph…… 93.33…… 0.17…… 5.68…… 0.94
Total…… 67.85…… 12.51…… 14.39…… 4.84

If you wonder about your value as water, protein, fat, and ash, you can calculate it according to a 70 kg person. If you do this, you can see that you are made up of 47.495 kilograms of water, 8.757 kg fat, 10.073 kg protein and 3.388 kg ash (mineral salts). Since the water in you is dirty and not clear, it isn’t worth anything. Your minerals and ash aren’t worth anything because there are plenty of them in soil. For $1.42 per kilogram, your fat is worth around $12.86. Your protein is worth around 16 kilograms of lamb, which costs around $36.57. So when you are elevated from elemental material to organic material, your value rises up to around $50.

Of course, our Lord didn’t leave you like this. He created you in the form of organs and tissues, which carry out miraculous tasks so that you can stay alive. Now, let’s see the groups of trillions of differentiated cells:

Total number of cells in the human body………… around 100 trillion
Number of cells that die in one second…………around 50 million
Number of cells created in one second…………around 50 million
Number of cell types…………more than 200
Number of red blood cells in 5 liters of blood…………25 trillion
Height reached by putting all of our red blood cells on top of each other…………around 60.000 km
Length reached by putting all of our red blood cells side by side…………192.500 km
Red blood cells’ surface area………..more than 1000 m2
Number of white blood cells (leucocytes) in our blood…………40 billion
Number of nerve cells…………30 billion
Length of a sperm…………35 micrometers
Diameter of an egg cell…………100-120 micrometers
Average length of a liver cell…………30-50 micrometers
Lifespan of small intestine mucous cells…………1.4 days
Lifespan of stomach entrance area (cardia) mucous cells…………9.1 days
Lifespan of stomach exit area (pylorus) mucous cells…………1.8 days
Lifespan of epithelial cells in lung alveoli…………8.1 days
Lifespan of large intestine (colon) mucous cells…………10 days
Lifespan of upper skin (epidermis) cells…………19.2 days
Lifespan of covering epithelial cells in the bladder…………66.5 days
Lifespan of neutrophile leucocytes…………45 days
Lifespan of eosinophile leucocytes…………10 days
Lifespan of lymphocytes…………5 days to 1 year
Lifespan of monocytes…………months
Lifespan of red blood cells…………120 days
Number of times a red blood cell travels the body during its life…………300.000
Number of red blood cells generated in a second…………2.4 million
Number of red blood cells generated in a day…………208 billion
Lifespan of a liver cell…………222 days
Lifespan of a kidney cell…………286 days
Number of mitochondria (power plant) in a nerve cell…………up to 10.000
Number of ribosomes created in a liver cell in one second…………180
Total length of the DNA in one cell…………2 m
Number of muscles in the body…………around 600
Number of muscles that work when smiling…………15
Number of muscles that work when frowning…………43
Total amount of work done by our muscles in one day
(Equal to lifting a 6 ton truck 50 meters into the air with a crane)…………around 3.106 Newtons
Total number of capillaries…………30 billion
Number of alveoli in the lungs…………400 million
Total amount of air taken in by the lungs in one day……………around 10.000 liters
Total amount of air we use in 75 years…………around 285 million liters
Total length of the nephrons in the kidney…………around 50 km
Total length of the glomerulus capillaries in the kidney…………around 25 km
Total inner surface area of the kidney channels…………20 m2
Total filtration area of the Bowman capsules in the kidney…………1 m2
Total skin weight…………11.15 kg
Total surface area of the skin…………1.5-1.8 m2
Total length of capillaries in 1 cm2 of skin…………around 1 m
Weight of dead keratin cells that fall off the skin in one day…………10 gr
Length of the nerve fibers in the skin…………80 km
Number of sweat glands…………around 2 million
Number of sebaceous glands in the skin on the head…………around 120.000
Total number of cells in the skin…………around 100 billion
Number of sensory receptors in the skin…………around 60 million
Daily sweat amount…………800 ml
Maximum daily sweat amount…………18 liters
Number of cells in the retina…………127 million
Number of values of the same color our eye can distinguish…………around 200
Number of shades of light that we can perceive…………around 500

The reason I gave all these numbers was not just to show the multitude of cells, organs, and tissues, but to emphasize that our Lord can create these with the precision that He creates a single cell. Mammals also have the organs and tissues that I have mentioned. Besides, some mammals have different organs with superior aspects. From this point of view, we are not much different from a cow or a horse. However, our Lord says that He created us in the best form possible, equipped us with superior qualities, and granted us the authority over all creation. Dear Peter! It’s time that you shed out of being an animal and rise to the degree of humanity. You cannot do this with your cells, organs, or tissues, but by gaining knowledge of divinity via spiritual virtues (such as the mind, conscience, and free will) that our Lord gave you.

If we see our body as a palace, could the stones, glass, porcelain, and wood come together and say, “Come on let’s make a palace, which will be the greatest palace in the world.” Could elements first turn into organic matter with macromolecules, then into cell organelles, then into cells, and finally into cells with different special duties, all on their own?

Finally, I believe it will be useful to give a table that shows every organ’s share in your body. My advice is not to evaluate anything materially. You cannot live without your pancreas, which only takes up a very small part of your body. Your heart, which is only 0.7% of your body, pumps the water of life (blood) to all of your organs; and your brain, which is 3.5%, manages your whole body. You can never give up on your kidneys, which take up only 0.5%.

Percentages of organ weights to the total body weight
Skeletal muscle (red meat)…………31.56 %
Skeleton and teeth…………14.90 %
Adipose tissue…………13.63 %
Skin…………7.81 %
Blood and lymph…………3.77 %
Lungs…………4.15 %
Brain and spinal cord…………3.52 %
Liver…………3.41 %
Intestines and stomach…………2.07 %
Kidneys…………0.51 %
Heart…………0.69 %
Spleen…………0.19 %
Pancreas…………0.16 %
Cartilage, ligaments, blood vessels and peripheral nerves…………13.63 %

All in all, we can say that the human body has holistic perfection with its functional parts, from hair to nail, to intestines and kidneys, as well as its aesthetic beauty.

Dear Peter! We have talked with you for a long time. I hope it was useful. I did everything I could. I am sorry that I couldn’t portray your true value!

Original Article: Ramirez G. et al., Science 331, 211 (2011).

We have had to deal with tests and exams in academic and professional life from childhood on. Though we are motivated to perform our best, the pressure-filled situations generally cause us to perform below our abilities. University of Chicago researchers were interested in finding an intervention that would improve performance under such conditions, especially for those students who do not do well on exams because they are blocked by anxiety. Their study showed that simply writing down our thoughts and concerns immediately before a high-stress event can increase performance from 5–12 percent when it matters most. The simple brain-focusing exercise of writing down feelings for ten minutes before an exam reduces anxiety and increases exam scores significantly. The researchers concluded that writing allows individuals to reexamine the situation and revaluate concerns, reducing anxiety and increasing one’s ability to focus. This type of writing may help people perform their best not only on tests but also in variety of high-stress situations—a big presentation to a client, a speech to an audience, or even a job interview.

2- Life Without Starlight

Original Article: Hooper, D. & Steffen, J.H. (arXiv:1103.5086v1).

Liquid water is considered the common solvent to catalyze carbon-based life on planets. This assumption defines a rather tight region around stars, which is called the “habitable zone.” The energy absorbed from the host star through its light allows planets in the habitable zones to melt water into liquid. Water would either evaporate or remain ice if the planet is too close to or distant from the star. A recent study suggested that starlight may not be the only energy source that can convert ice into liquid water and maintain it in that state. Dark matter annihilation may produce enough heat in special circumstances for planets that may not be sufficiently heated by their host star. Ordinary matter constitutes only about 20 percent of the matter in the universe, while dark matter makes up about 80 percent of all matter. It is believed that dark matter weakly interacts with atomic nuclei. Therefore, one of the leading models for dark matter is called “weakly interacting massive particles” (WIMPs). In cases where dark matter interacts with nuclei, WIMPs can transfer momentum to the nucleus. Then they can get gravitationally captured and subsequently decay as energetic particles. This process can produce heat as a consequence. On Earth, the concentration of dark matter at its center is not sufficient to produce observable contributions to the planet’s total heat budget. However for planets around stars that are closer to the centers of their galaxy, where the concentration of dark matter is significantly higher, just enough heat may be produced by gravitationally captured and annihilated dark matter. The abundance of planets detected by NASA’s satellite mission-Kepler suggests that perhaps life in the universe might be more abundant than we thought.

3- How Much Digital Information Can Mankind Store?

Original Article: Hilbert, H. & López, P., Science 332, 60 (2011).

Have you ever wondered how much total information is stored by human beings? We store information in two different forms: analog storage such as books, printed photos, and audio cassettes, and digital storage such as hard drives, CDs, DVDs, and the like. A recent paper analyzed how the total information storage and processing ability of human beings changed between the years of 1986 and 2007. The study estimated that the total information stored as of 2007 is 295 exabytes. An exabyte is equal to one million terabytes or one billion gigabytes. If all this information was stored on CDs, this stack of CDs would reach beyond the moon. If it was stored in books, it would be enough to cover the entire United States with 13 layers of books. Interestingly, the information stored by DNA in one single human body is about 300 times larger than the entire amount of information stored by humanity. In 2000, only 25 percent of known information was stored in digital form; this ratio increased to 94 percent in 2007. The area in which the “information revolution” is most evident is computation. The study found that the global computing capacity increased by 58 percent per year during this time. But even at this fast rate of growth, in 2007 the total instructions per second that humankind can carry out on its general-purpose computers were about the same as the maximum number of nerve impulses executed by one human brain per second.

4- Tricking the Brain to Attack Alzheimer’s Disease

Original Articles: Atwal, J. K. et al., Science Translational Medicine 3, 84ra43 (2011) & Yu, Y. J. et al., Science Translational Medicine 3, 84ra44 (2011).

Alzheimer’s disease affects many people, especially in later stages of life, and as the lifespan of humans increases, it becomes much more prevalent everyday. The primary cause of Alzheimer’s disease is unknown, but scientists generally associate the disease with the appearance of plaques and tangles in brain cells, often caused by a protein called amyloid. Hence, a natural strategy would be to attack these proteins that form these plaques. Yet, the biggest obstacle in our brain is the blood-brain barrier, which prevents viruses and other unwanted visitors from entering our most delicate organ. Scientists have tried to overcome this barrier with many different drugs and strategies, but there is no clear winner yet. Two recent studies reported in Science Translational Medicine journal give us a new hope in our fight against Alzheimer’s disease. Scientists devised a clever strategy to trick the gatekeepers of the blood-brain barrier into escorting antibodies against the Alzheimer’s-associated proteins. This method reduced the levels of amyloid by up to 50 percent inside mouse brain cells. Designed antibodies had two arms—one arm to target the enzyme, BACE1, which produces the amyloid, and the other arm to bind to the transferring receptor, which in turn deceived the endothelial cells from the blood-brain barrier to internalize the antibody. There are many other brain disorders that we have a limited arsenal against because of the blood-brain barrier. Hence this new method can be used for these diseases, which opens up a whole new venue of targeting strategies.

Enviromnental damage ramains a growing concern. Despite rigorous energy efficiency programs and research and development (R&D) efforts on cleaner energy technologies in most developed countries, no developing country views these as priorities. And they have a case: Developed countries, which enjoyed high economic growth for decades by ignoring the environmental consequences, are hindering developing countries’ economic growth. On the other hand, representatives from developed countries say that we are all in the same boat and will sink together if developing countries do not pay attention to environmental consequences.

In December 1997, world leaders gathered in Kyoto to address the problem of global warming and to decide which countries should cut emissions and to what extent. Not surprisingly, developing countries objected to any restriction that might limit their economic growth. Such discussions will become more intense in the aftermath of the Kyoto Protocol.

This article will not address the issue of environmental reparations. Rather, it will discuss the energy markets’ current situation and short-term future trends.

Basic Properties of the Energy Systems

Present-day energy systems have several basic characteristics. All policy makers dealing with energy systems should know these basics by heart.

First, energy systems develop slowly because they require significant capital and infrastructure that can be replaced only gradually. There are two important consequences resulting from this fact:

•Intense capital requirements are a strong barrier to average-sized firms. Thus, energy systems are seldom run by private enterprises. In most countries they are constructed and run by the state, and a separate government body deals with energy issues. Energy systems have been dominated by heavy regulations even in most market-oriented economies. The recent trend of deregulation is an exception rather than the norm.

•Even if a state realizes that current energy systems can be improved significantly (e.g., switching to other fuel types or deregulating the market), making changes to a huge, functioning infrastructure is a slow and painful process. It is relatively easy to make changes during the initial stages of an energy system. But as time passes, this becomes more difficult.

As in most cases, good planning is essential. A state must be very careful when building its energy systems, and should pay attention to underlying energy market trends. Important lessons can be learned from the long history of mistakes committed by developing countries. And if a developing country fails to keep up with recent trends, it may find itself trapped by its own hands in an inherently inefficient system for decades.

Second, energy systems are heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Historically, coal has been a prominent energy resource in most countries. Despite its widely acknowledged negative impact on human health and the environment, it still dominates energy systems in such developing countries as India and China. In most countries, oil is the primary energy source.

Oil was one of the most influential key factors of the twentieth century. Just by looking at the traffic on our teeming highways or the modern political landscape, we can understand how profoundly oil has changed the way we live and handle international politics. In the light of the oil crises of 1973 and 1980, the reverse-shock of 1986, and another crisis during the Gulf War of 1990, the need to diversify away from oil becomes abundantly clear.

Environmental concerns also support the case against oil. This is how natural gas, a slightly cleaner fossil fuel, gradually entered the picture. Given the current energy systems’ dependence on these fossil fuels and the fact that energy systems change slowly, oil, coal and natural gas will continue to be dominant for years.

Third, the driving force behind the dynamic of switching from one fuel type to another is economics. Fuel types with smaller unit costs survive in the long run. Oil, for example, now has the lowest unit cost (cost per unit of energy) in most regions of the world.1

Given this, cleaner fuel (e.g., solar energy) still have a long way to go before becoming economically viable. Why would you pay $5 for what you can get for $3? Countries that use non-oil energy resources do this for a number of reasons, such as they do not have natural resources and so transporting oil ends up costing more, or they have abundant natural energy resources of other types. But, in general, economics is the most important issue here.

Introducing New Fuels

What trajectory does the unit cost follow when a new fuel is introduced? Consider photovoltaic (PV) cells. The term photovoltaic refers to a family of technologies that convert light directly into electricity. PV technology is an appealing alternative-it is a renewable, environmentally benign, and domestically secure energy source. It is modular and can be scaled up to meet demand.2 However, unit cost is currently high compared to fossil fuels.

A new technology’s unit cost is believed to follow a learning (or experience) curve as a function of installed capacity. As shown in Figure 1, technologies may experience declining costs due to their increasing adoption by society. This decline may be attributed to several factors:

• Technology innovation and manufacturing improvements: Costs may decline due to a better understanding of the underlying science, progress in related fields, or via learning by doing as well as learning by using.

• Economies of scale: Unit cost is a function of total production. Products produced in large quantities have lower unit costs. Most new fuel types have high unit costs, and demand is too low to encourage large-scale production. It almost seems paradoxical. But there are ways to break this cycle. Regulations encouraging usage of new fuel types may be enforced, consumers who have priorities other than cost may be targeted to expand the current market, or the cost may drop low enough for the technology to become attractive even for low production levels.

In achieving economies of scale, consumer demand should he considered. A major concern for the end-use consumer is convenience. The value of oil would be much lower if gas stations were not located all over the country. The same issue applies to fuel cells and electric cars. They will not be as convenient as conventional cars until the proper infrastructure exists.

Since 1960s, cooperative investments by manufacturers and governments have resulted in the accumulation of experience within the solar industry and the subsequent cost reduction of PV systems. Significant cost reductions have occurred in both the PV modules that house the solar cells, and the ancillary components (known as balance-of-system). Between 1968 and 1998, the global cumulative installed capacity of PV modules doubled more than thirteen times, from 95 kW to 950 MW, while costs ($/Wp) were reduced by an average of 20.2% for each doubling.4

Trends for Different Fuel Types

After this overview of energy systems, lets look at the trends for specific fuel types. Figure 2 is taken from International Energy Outlook 2000 (IEO2000), an annual report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).5 It displays projections of energy usage by fuel type up to 2020. The highlights following the figure are summarized from the reports contents.

Coal: Carbon dioxide is a very effective greenhouse gas and contributes significantly to global warming. Since coal is the most carbon-intensive fuel, global climate change debates focus on reducing its use. Coal use also has significant public health consequences, due to particulate matter emissions. Historically, coal has been a major source of energy. Although it has lost market share to petroleum products, natural gas, and nuclear power in the last decades, it remains a key source of energy, especially for generating electricity. In the IEO2000 reference case, coals share of total energy consumption falls only slightly, from 24 percent in 1997 to 22 percent in 2020 (Figure 3). Its historical share is nearly maintained, because large increases in energy use are projected for developing Asian countries, where coal continues to dominate many national fuel markets. China and India are projected to account for 97 percent of the worlds total increase in coal use.

Oil: Oil use will grow in absolute terms, but even optimistic oil supply scenarios predict that its share in the fuel mix will decline gradually. Despite efforts to reduce reliance on Middle Eastern oil, as well as advances in technical capability, new oil reserves are not compensating for depleted ones. The experts estimates of vast oil reserves in the Caspian and Tarim basins proved to be somewhat high, and the latest probes have been partially disappointing. According to EIA estimates, the share of the Persian Culf supplies is likely to increase in the coming years. Economic theory says that prices rise as supply declines. Oil prices have been quite volatile and can be expected to remain so in the future, principally as the result of unforeseen political and social circumstances. Without attempting to predict any crisis, the IEO2000 forecast shows a gradual rise in world oil prices. Oil currently provides a larger share of world energy consumption than any other energy source and is expected to remain in that position throughout the forecast period. Its share of total energy consumption declines slightly, however, from 39 percent in 1997 to 38 percent in 2020, as countries in many parts of the world switch to natural gas and other fuels, particularly for electricity generation. World oil consumption is projected to increase by 1.9 percent annually over projection period. Most of the growth in oil use is projected for the transportation sector, where few alternatives are currently economical.

Natural Gas: Natural gas remains the fastest growing component of global energy consumption. Over the IEO2000 forecast period, its use is projected to more than double in the reference case, reaching 167 trillion cubic feet. The natural gas share of total energy consumption increases from 22 percent in 1997 to 29 percent in 2020. It also accounts for the largest increment in electricity generation. Combined-cycle gas turbine power plants offer some of the highest commercially available plant efficiencies, and natural gas is environmentally attractive because it emits less sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide, and particulate matter than either oil or coal.

World Energy Consumption Shares Type: 1970-2000

In the industrialized world, natural gas consumption has the largest projected increase among the major fuels, increasingly becoming the choice for new power generation because of its environmental and economic advantages. Its incremental use in developing countries is expected to supply both power generation and other uses, such as town gas and fuel for industry. Despite concerns about the extent of natural gas reserves worldwide, current proven reserves suffice for this markets steady development without a substantial price increase.

Nuclear Power: The prospects for nuclear power are uncertain, despite a projected growth rate of 2.5 percent per year in total electricty demand through 2020. In the IEO2000 reference case, global nuclear capacity is projected to increase to 368 gigawatts in 2010 and then gradually fall to 303 gigawatts in 2020. Aggressive plans to expand nuclear capacity, mainly in Asia, lead to a near-term increase. However, plant retirements in America and other countries exceed total new additions worldwide, and produce a decline later in the forecast. The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA] is one of the authorities on energy issues.

IIASA projections [which extend until 2100] hold a slightly pessimistic view of nuclear energy. Nuclear energy production has stagnated for several decades, and IIASA suggests that this will continue. Currently, nuclear energy is prominent in only a handful of countries. Not many nuclear plants are being built, and existing ones are being dismantled. With large up-front capital costs, plant safety, and recycling nuclear material after dismantling issues, this option is becoming less and less attractive. Public opposition, already strong in the US and Europe, is growing in Asia. Nuclear safety issues moved to the forefront in Asia in 1999 after several leaks at nuclear power plants in South Korea and China, and the serious accident in a reprocessing facility in Tokaimura, Japan. Such events are likely to raise concerns about Asias aggressive plans for nuclear capacity expansion. IIASA predicts that if a safer and cheaper new generatinn of nuclear plants is introduced, nuclear powers ultimate share in fuel mix will grow. Otherwise, it eventually will come to an end.

Renewables: The development of renewable resources is constrained in the IEO2000 reference case projections by expectations that fossil fuel prices will remain relatively low, and that, as a result, renewables will have a difficult time competing. Failing a strong global commitment to environmental programs, such as the limitation and reduction of greenhouse gases outlined in the Kyotu Protocol, it is difficult to foresee significant and widespread increases in renewable energy use. Modest growth in renewabte energy is projected to continue, maintaining an 8 percent share of total energy consumption. Nevertheless, in the long run, as other fossil fuel types become more expensive due to depletion and R&D efforts push the unit cost further down, new opportunities will emerge. Even conservative estimates predict that the worlds energy will rely considerably on renewables before 2100.7

Conclusion

In this article,we highlighted several basic characteristics of energy systems, and drew attention to some underlying trends for particular fuel types. Based on this information, we can say that:Energy systems are capital-intensive and hard to change once they have been built. Therefore, developing countries should track energy system trends closely and build their energy systems according to their future needs. The most important factor influencing the decision of which energy source to use is economics. Until a resources unit cost is competitive with others, it will not enjoy widespread acceptance and usage. Fossil fuels will dominate energy markets in the short run. The shares of coal and oil in the fuel mix will remain relatively constant until 2020, while the market for natural gas will expand rapidly. Nuclear power will survive only if a new generation of safer and cheaper reactors is introduced. Renewables will be the ultimate choice of the future. Currently, however, they cannot compete successfully on cost with conventional fuels.

Footnotes

1. Although the cost of extraction rises as the amount of oil remaining underground decreases, extraction technology also advances and pushes the cost down. Transporting oil from the field to the marketplace is added to the extraction (or purchasing) cost.
2. Christopher Harmon, Experience Curves of Photovoltaic Technology (March 2000). The entire report is available on IIASA web site: http: www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents lR-00-014.pdf
3. Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN at Petten), “Endogenous Technological Change in Energy System Models.” Paper presented at the 1999 IIASA conference.
4. IIASA-WEC. 1998.
5. International Energy Outlook 2000 is available on the EIAs Web site: http: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.
6. N. Nakicenovic, A. Gruebler, and A. McDonald, Global Energy Perspectives (Cambridge. UK: 1998).
7. Experts differ over what exactly is included in this category. For practical purposes, renewables cover all energy sources except coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear. Therefore this group includes, but is not limited to, hydroelectricity, wave, wind, biomass, and solar energy.

Despite the improvements, increased age, in general, coincides with an increased incidence of both mental and physical illness. This is made worse by a weakening of social contacts and a reduction of income. Thus increasing age is also characterized by a dramatic increase in the use of health and social services. The older the person, the more likely he or she is to be admitted to hospital and the longer the stay.

The increasing demands on the hospital service have not been met by an increase in the total number of hospital beds. Medical and surgical treatments previously thought to require a three- or four-week stay in hospital are treated within a week or ten days. Also more work is now undertaken in the outpatient department on a day-care basis without overnight stay. Many medical cases previously requiring hospital care are now dealt with by the family doctor with the patient at home.

The whole concept of care has changed dramatically in recent years, and this has affected the caring approach in hospitals, residential homes and in the community. In the past, caring involved an active carer looking after a passive patient. Although it seemed quite natural to look after the sick and disabled in this way, the process produced too much dependence of the patient or client on the carer. The modern approach in health and social services is a process of enabling. Carers enable patients (or clients) to do as much as they can for themselves. This approach reduces dependence and keeps down the total level of care required.

The idea is that illness is best treated at home, if possible. The new legislation on community care, which took effect on the 1st April 1993, is based on this principle. Pain is a burden on oneself, and being removed from home and family to the strange environment of a hospital ward adds to the stress. This is especially so for the very young and the very old.

However, not all homes are the most satisfactory places in which to be ill. Many lack the basic amenities of hot and cold water, indoor lavatory, and satisfactory heating. Also there may be no relative or friend to do the caring,-to prepare food, ensure and maintain good standards of hygiene, and to offer companionship. Often the problems can be overcome to a certain extent by the use of voluntary help from religious groups and the agencies of the Health Service and local authority (e.g. community nurses, home helps, and ‘meals on wheels’).

At present only about 6% of all elderly people are in institutional care of some sort (hospitals, residential homes, and private nursing homes). Even this small percentage imposes very heavy burdens on these institutions; present resources are simply not enough to meet even a small increase in numbers. There are waiting lists for most institutions caring for the elderly.

A further 12% of the elderly are enabled to manage in their own homes, with the help of the care agencies already mentioned. The new community care programme strongly encourages such help in the home. Only a reduction in the proportion of very old people in the total population and a healthier elderly population would result in some easing of the problem.

Care on a self help / family / neighbourhood basis backed up by the provisions of the health and social services appears to deliver good results. When husbands, wives, brothers, sisters, friends and neighbours, are involved together in the process of caring for the elderly, a very good sense of community develops. Children in particular have a special responsibility towards their parents. God says in the Qur’an:

Your lord has decreed that you worship none but Him, and that you be kind to parents, whether one or both of them attain old age in your life, say not to them a word of contempt, nor repel them, but address them in terms of honour. And, out of kindness, lower to them the wing of humility and say: ‘My lord! bestow on them Your mercy even as they cherished me in childhood.’ (al-Isra,17.23-4)

26% of elderly people have no children at all and so are especially vulnerable in times of crisis. In other cases the children may exist but are so far away as to be unable to help. Regular help to the elderly is best given by relatives, neighbours, and friends-shopping, housework, house maintenance, gardening and social visits. However, statutory and voluntary services are still required to take over-or at least plug the gaps-if the task proves to be too great for the community. It is, of course, best for society if people learn to care for one another in their own homes. 

More than 97 per cent of this water is in the oceans. The rest-about 37 million cubic kilometres-is fresh water but most of that is of little use since it is locked in icecaps and glaciers. Current estimates are that about 8 million cubic kilometres are stored in relatively inaccessible ground water and about 0.126 million cubic kilometres are contained in lakes and streams.

Like coal, oil, iron or soil, water is a natural resource. But there are many ways in which water differs from other natural resources. First, it moves. Second, its total quantity on the earth is fixed and can be neither increased nor decreased. Thirdly, water is essential for human survival.

The human being’s biological need for water is modest. A dozen or so cupfuls a day are all that are required for survival. Even so, there are many areas of the earth where even this requirement is difficult to meet. Rainfall in many desert regions is limited to a few millimetres a year, and this often falls at unpredictable times during the space of a few isolated days. Survival in these regions is impossible unless water is imported.

Biological survival, however, is not the issue in today’s water-stressed world. Water is required for household needs, for industry and agriculture. Household needs-drinking, washing and cooking-could be adequately met everywhere in the world by less than 100 litres per person per day, roughly the amount used for an average shower. Of this, only one litre a day is required for drinking. A hundred litres a day is the equivalent of about 35 cubic metres per person a year. If every man, woman and child on the planet were provided with 100 litres of domestic water a day, the water bill for a population of 5 billion people would be 180,000 billion litres a year; or 180 cubic kilometres. In theory, the Amazon river alone with an annual flow of nearly 6000 cubic kilometres could supply the domestic water needs of a world population more than 30 times as large as it is now.

A supply of unpolluted drinking water and the sanitary disposal of human wastes are fundamental to health. Water pollution moves through shared rivers, lakes and seas. An estimated 60 million people died of diarrhoea diseases due to unsafe drinking water and malnutrition, most of the victims were children.

Irrigation is by far the biggest use of water and also the most rapidly expanding. Plants use large quantities of water during their growth. Under dry conditions, it takes about 1000 cubic metres of water to produce one tonne of plant growth. The amount of water used for irrigation has increased 10 times this century and elaborate plans are still being made to extend irrigation to more and more areas. The basic addition is simple: 565 cubic kilometres for domestic, industrial, cooling and livestock use, plus 3,300 cubic kilometres for irrigation. As near as makes little difference, the answer is 4000 cubic kilometres a year, equivalent to 44 per cent of the total reliable run off.

In 1940, total water use was about 1000 cubic kilometres a year. It had doubled by 1960 and doubled again by 1990. The rising need for water has two components: One is that more and more people use water and the other is that they use more of it than they used to.

The Qur’an reminds us that water is the source of all life. “Do not the unbelievers see that the heavens and the earth were joined together, then We clove them asunder and We made every living thing out of the water? Will they not then believe?” (21:30).

The phrase can equally mean that every living thing is made of water (as its essential component) or that every living thing originated in water. The meanings are strictly in accordance with scientific data. Life is indeed of aquatic origin and water is the major component of all living cells. Without water, life is not possible. When the possibility of life on another planet is discussed, the first question is always: Does it contain a sufficient quantity of water to support life?

References

• Robin Clarke (1991), Water: The International Crisis. Earthscan Ltd., London, UK.
• Maurice Bucaille (1983), The Bible, The Qur’an and Science, Seghers, Paris, France.
• The World Commission on Environment and Development (1987), Our Common Future, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
• Ahrned Zidan Ann Dina Zidan (1989), Translation of The Glorious Qur’an, Biddies Ltd., Guildford, UK.