Breakthroughs and innovations start with a very radical idea. They don’t try to improve a process or product; they often disrupt an existing solution or approach or displace an existing technology. This is a lesson to us: You don’t need to wait for others to shape your future.

Ideas can come from anywhere. Sometimes a conversation, or reading a book, or even a dream [1] can be the source of innovation. Our daily activities are all part of the inventive process. In fact, the internet provides many sources of information and inspiration. One can easily search for related patents and research on how to improve the idea. An average internet user can easily access new tools and platforms to take courses online, ask questions, and get answers from experts. New online platforms like Coursera, Udacity, and edX [2] provide free and high quality educational content and tools. One can easily take courses from these platforms, educating themselves and developing new ideas and technologies.

Crowdsourcing is another alternative for finding an innovative solution to a problem. Many companies and organizations are now organizing innovation challenges, seeking ideas and products for problems in many scientific and engineering fields. This approach allows companies to access the world’s smartest people to help solve important technical, social, policy, and scientific challenges. Governments and large corporations are also offering incentives for large scale scientific and technological projects. A well-known example of this approach are XPRIZE challenges [3]. The XPRIZE Foundation is organizing challenges to help solve difficult future problems. One of the challenges from XPRIZE is to build and launch a spacecraft that can carry three people 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface – and can do so twice in two weeks. Another space related challenge is to land safely on the surface of the Moon, travel 500 meters on the Lunar surface, and communicate two times with the Earth. These challenges are not only allowing companies to push the limits of science and technology, but also generating commercial and applied projects.

But back to you and your great new idea… Once you have your innovative idea on solid ground, the next step is to attract funding to bring your idea to life. There are many funding mechanisms today, including loans from banks, borrowing money from friends and family, angel investors, startup competitions, venture capital funding, and a new approach called “crowdfunding.” Crowdfunding is the process of collecting financing for a project or idea from a large number of (often anonymous) investors, each donating small amounts. The crowdfunding industry is expected to grow to $90 billion by 2020. There are many successful crowdfunding campaigns that raised over $1 million in less than 24 hours, for art pieces, movies, technological products, and video games. The highest reported funding campaign was for a project called Star Citizen, an online space video game that raised over $37 million [4]. The crowdfunding platforms also help with the marketing, advertising, and social media reach for the ideas and products.

While it is possible to explain and attract funding with just the idea or concept of your innovation, it is important to have a functioning prototype to prove that the idea is real and it is possible to bring it to life. Prototyping is an important step for demonstrating your idea to others. With the developments in manufacturing and 3D printing, it is easier than ever to produce a prototype. Low cost 3D printing allows local manufacturing and prototyping. While 3D printing has existed for quite some time, it was for many years an expensive technology available only to larger companies. New technological developments make it available and affordable for personal use. One can easily design or download a 3D model of a product, and print at home for testing and everyday use. Many printing stores now accept online orders for 3D print jobs [5]. 3D printing can make easy for innovators to produce a prototype of their products and test before starting fundraising process and mass production.

The current level of 3D printer technology allows printing mostly for non-electronic components of a product. For electronic components and computing units of prototypes, open source electronics platforms are useful. There are many platforms that allow hardware developers to prototype their projects using electronics, sensors, actuators, and motors. Hackers, artists, designers, and hobbyists have produced many interactive and interesting projects. Would you like to have your coffee pot send you a tweet when the coffee is ready? Receive an SMS when there is mail in your physical mailbox? What about an auto-lacing shoe? These are all made possible using open source electronic projects. What is great about all of these projects is that the developers share all necessary steps and details of the their projects for easy replication by interested users.

Innovation is not limited to physical products and hardware. One can easily develop a mobile app to improve a traditional business or disrupt an industry. Smartphones and innovative app ideas are changing the way we get a taxi (Uber), book a room (Airbnb), check the price of a product (Amazon), and share-a-ride (Lyft). Uber introduced a smartphone app to allow passengers to book the nearest “taxi” and track the vehicle on a map. Users can make payments with their preloaded credit card information. The Lyft mobile app facilitates ride-sharing by enabling passengers to request a ride from other users nearby who have a car, in exchange for a small fee. Airbnb allows people to rent their private rooms, apartments, homes, and other properties to other users seeking lodging. The Amazon price check app disrupts the retail business by allowing consumers to scan bar codes in local stores and compare prices and order directly from Amazon.

Most of these new approaches were made available by the introduction of smart phones and mobile technologies. The total number of smartphones in the world is over 2 billion. One can develop a small game and reach 20 million users, a relatively small percentage of the worldwide smartphone users, in a single day. For a product or a service, reaching 20 million customers in one day is a great achievement. With new software platforms, it is easier to develop a smartphone application that works on many platforms. These software tools even allow developers to use easier web technologies to program the app. It is becoming a straightforward process to bring an idea to life, especially in software products and services. With all these new tools and services, innovation is getting easier than ever.

While having a novel idea is an important step for innovation, education and hard work are critical for success. Through education, we can inspire new generations to come up with innovative ideas that can change the world. Thomas Edison, famous inventor with over 1000 patents, regarded success as “1% inspiration and 99% perspiration.” Through dedication, failure can be viewed as another opportunity to learn something new. As Edison said, “If I find 10,000 ways something won’t work, I haven’t failed. I am not discouraged, because every wrong attempt discarded is another step forward.”

References

1. Halil I. Demir, ‘Religious Inspirations and Scientific Inventions’, Fountain Magazine, Issue 89 / September – October 2012.
2. Alex Usher, ‘The Future of MOOCs: Coursera and EdX’, Higher Education Strategy Associates, November 19, 2013.
3. XPRIZE Scientific and Technological Challenges, http://xprize.org
4. Ryan Fleming, ‘Star Citizen destroys all crowdfunding records, hits $37 million’, Digital Trends, January 22, 2014.
5. Dominic Basulto, ‘How 3D printing could transform Amazon and online shopping’, March 13, 2014.

Enviromnental damage ramains a growing concern. Despite rigorous energy efficiency programs and research and development (R&D) efforts on cleaner energy technologies in most developed countries, no developing country views these as priorities. And they have a case: Developed countries, which enjoyed high economic growth for decades by ignoring the environmental consequences, are hindering developing countries’ economic growth. On the other hand, representatives from developed countries say that we are all in the same boat and will sink together if developing countries do not pay attention to environmental consequences.

In December 1997, world leaders gathered in Kyoto to address the problem of global warming and to decide which countries should cut emissions and to what extent. Not surprisingly, developing countries objected to any restriction that might limit their economic growth. Such discussions will become more intense in the aftermath of the Kyoto Protocol.

This article will not address the issue of environmental reparations. Rather, it will discuss the energy markets’ current situation and short-term future trends.

Basic Properties of the Energy Systems

Present-day energy systems have several basic characteristics. All policy makers dealing with energy systems should know these basics by heart.

First, energy systems develop slowly because they require significant capital and infrastructure that can be replaced only gradually. There are two important consequences resulting from this fact:

•Intense capital requirements are a strong barrier to average-sized firms. Thus, energy systems are seldom run by private enterprises. In most countries they are constructed and run by the state, and a separate government body deals with energy issues. Energy systems have been dominated by heavy regulations even in most market-oriented economies. The recent trend of deregulation is an exception rather than the norm.

•Even if a state realizes that current energy systems can be improved significantly (e.g., switching to other fuel types or deregulating the market), making changes to a huge, functioning infrastructure is a slow and painful process. It is relatively easy to make changes during the initial stages of an energy system. But as time passes, this becomes more difficult.

As in most cases, good planning is essential. A state must be very careful when building its energy systems, and should pay attention to underlying energy market trends. Important lessons can be learned from the long history of mistakes committed by developing countries. And if a developing country fails to keep up with recent trends, it may find itself trapped by its own hands in an inherently inefficient system for decades.

Second, energy systems are heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Historically, coal has been a prominent energy resource in most countries. Despite its widely acknowledged negative impact on human health and the environment, it still dominates energy systems in such developing countries as India and China. In most countries, oil is the primary energy source.

Oil was one of the most influential key factors of the twentieth century. Just by looking at the traffic on our teeming highways or the modern political landscape, we can understand how profoundly oil has changed the way we live and handle international politics. In the light of the oil crises of 1973 and 1980, the reverse-shock of 1986, and another crisis during the Gulf War of 1990, the need to diversify away from oil becomes abundantly clear.

Environmental concerns also support the case against oil. This is how natural gas, a slightly cleaner fossil fuel, gradually entered the picture. Given the current energy systems’ dependence on these fossil fuels and the fact that energy systems change slowly, oil, coal and natural gas will continue to be dominant for years.

Third, the driving force behind the dynamic of switching from one fuel type to another is economics. Fuel types with smaller unit costs survive in the long run. Oil, for example, now has the lowest unit cost (cost per unit of energy) in most regions of the world.1

Given this, cleaner fuel (e.g., solar energy) still have a long way to go before becoming economically viable. Why would you pay $5 for what you can get for $3? Countries that use non-oil energy resources do this for a number of reasons, such as they do not have natural resources and so transporting oil ends up costing more, or they have abundant natural energy resources of other types. But, in general, economics is the most important issue here.

Introducing New Fuels

What trajectory does the unit cost follow when a new fuel is introduced? Consider photovoltaic (PV) cells. The term photovoltaic refers to a family of technologies that convert light directly into electricity. PV technology is an appealing alternative-it is a renewable, environmentally benign, and domestically secure energy source. It is modular and can be scaled up to meet demand.2 However, unit cost is currently high compared to fossil fuels.

A new technology’s unit cost is believed to follow a learning (or experience) curve as a function of installed capacity. As shown in Figure 1, technologies may experience declining costs due to their increasing adoption by society. This decline may be attributed to several factors:

• Technology innovation and manufacturing improvements: Costs may decline due to a better understanding of the underlying science, progress in related fields, or via learning by doing as well as learning by using.

• Economies of scale: Unit cost is a function of total production. Products produced in large quantities have lower unit costs. Most new fuel types have high unit costs, and demand is too low to encourage large-scale production. It almost seems paradoxical. But there are ways to break this cycle. Regulations encouraging usage of new fuel types may be enforced, consumers who have priorities other than cost may be targeted to expand the current market, or the cost may drop low enough for the technology to become attractive even for low production levels.

In achieving economies of scale, consumer demand should he considered. A major concern for the end-use consumer is convenience. The value of oil would be much lower if gas stations were not located all over the country. The same issue applies to fuel cells and electric cars. They will not be as convenient as conventional cars until the proper infrastructure exists.

Since 1960s, cooperative investments by manufacturers and governments have resulted in the accumulation of experience within the solar industry and the subsequent cost reduction of PV systems. Significant cost reductions have occurred in both the PV modules that house the solar cells, and the ancillary components (known as balance-of-system). Between 1968 and 1998, the global cumulative installed capacity of PV modules doubled more than thirteen times, from 95 kW to 950 MW, while costs ($/Wp) were reduced by an average of 20.2% for each doubling.4

Trends for Different Fuel Types

After this overview of energy systems, lets look at the trends for specific fuel types. Figure 2 is taken from International Energy Outlook 2000 (IEO2000), an annual report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).5 It displays projections of energy usage by fuel type up to 2020. The highlights following the figure are summarized from the reports contents.

Coal: Carbon dioxide is a very effective greenhouse gas and contributes significantly to global warming. Since coal is the most carbon-intensive fuel, global climate change debates focus on reducing its use. Coal use also has significant public health consequences, due to particulate matter emissions. Historically, coal has been a major source of energy. Although it has lost market share to petroleum products, natural gas, and nuclear power in the last decades, it remains a key source of energy, especially for generating electricity. In the IEO2000 reference case, coals share of total energy consumption falls only slightly, from 24 percent in 1997 to 22 percent in 2020 (Figure 3). Its historical share is nearly maintained, because large increases in energy use are projected for developing Asian countries, where coal continues to dominate many national fuel markets. China and India are projected to account for 97 percent of the worlds total increase in coal use.

Oil: Oil use will grow in absolute terms, but even optimistic oil supply scenarios predict that its share in the fuel mix will decline gradually. Despite efforts to reduce reliance on Middle Eastern oil, as well as advances in technical capability, new oil reserves are not compensating for depleted ones. The experts estimates of vast oil reserves in the Caspian and Tarim basins proved to be somewhat high, and the latest probes have been partially disappointing. According to EIA estimates, the share of the Persian Culf supplies is likely to increase in the coming years. Economic theory says that prices rise as supply declines. Oil prices have been quite volatile and can be expected to remain so in the future, principally as the result of unforeseen political and social circumstances. Without attempting to predict any crisis, the IEO2000 forecast shows a gradual rise in world oil prices. Oil currently provides a larger share of world energy consumption than any other energy source and is expected to remain in that position throughout the forecast period. Its share of total energy consumption declines slightly, however, from 39 percent in 1997 to 38 percent in 2020, as countries in many parts of the world switch to natural gas and other fuels, particularly for electricity generation. World oil consumption is projected to increase by 1.9 percent annually over projection period. Most of the growth in oil use is projected for the transportation sector, where few alternatives are currently economical.

Natural Gas: Natural gas remains the fastest growing component of global energy consumption. Over the IEO2000 forecast period, its use is projected to more than double in the reference case, reaching 167 trillion cubic feet. The natural gas share of total energy consumption increases from 22 percent in 1997 to 29 percent in 2020. It also accounts for the largest increment in electricity generation. Combined-cycle gas turbine power plants offer some of the highest commercially available plant efficiencies, and natural gas is environmentally attractive because it emits less sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide, and particulate matter than either oil or coal.

World Energy Consumption Shares Type: 1970-2000

In the industrialized world, natural gas consumption has the largest projected increase among the major fuels, increasingly becoming the choice for new power generation because of its environmental and economic advantages. Its incremental use in developing countries is expected to supply both power generation and other uses, such as town gas and fuel for industry. Despite concerns about the extent of natural gas reserves worldwide, current proven reserves suffice for this markets steady development without a substantial price increase.

Nuclear Power: The prospects for nuclear power are uncertain, despite a projected growth rate of 2.5 percent per year in total electricty demand through 2020. In the IEO2000 reference case, global nuclear capacity is projected to increase to 368 gigawatts in 2010 and then gradually fall to 303 gigawatts in 2020. Aggressive plans to expand nuclear capacity, mainly in Asia, lead to a near-term increase. However, plant retirements in America and other countries exceed total new additions worldwide, and produce a decline later in the forecast. The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA] is one of the authorities on energy issues.

IIASA projections [which extend until 2100] hold a slightly pessimistic view of nuclear energy. Nuclear energy production has stagnated for several decades, and IIASA suggests that this will continue. Currently, nuclear energy is prominent in only a handful of countries. Not many nuclear plants are being built, and existing ones are being dismantled. With large up-front capital costs, plant safety, and recycling nuclear material after dismantling issues, this option is becoming less and less attractive. Public opposition, already strong in the US and Europe, is growing in Asia. Nuclear safety issues moved to the forefront in Asia in 1999 after several leaks at nuclear power plants in South Korea and China, and the serious accident in a reprocessing facility in Tokaimura, Japan. Such events are likely to raise concerns about Asias aggressive plans for nuclear capacity expansion. IIASA predicts that if a safer and cheaper new generatinn of nuclear plants is introduced, nuclear powers ultimate share in fuel mix will grow. Otherwise, it eventually will come to an end.

Renewables: The development of renewable resources is constrained in the IEO2000 reference case projections by expectations that fossil fuel prices will remain relatively low, and that, as a result, renewables will have a difficult time competing. Failing a strong global commitment to environmental programs, such as the limitation and reduction of greenhouse gases outlined in the Kyotu Protocol, it is difficult to foresee significant and widespread increases in renewable energy use. Modest growth in renewabte energy is projected to continue, maintaining an 8 percent share of total energy consumption. Nevertheless, in the long run, as other fossil fuel types become more expensive due to depletion and R&D efforts push the unit cost further down, new opportunities will emerge. Even conservative estimates predict that the worlds energy will rely considerably on renewables before 2100.7

Conclusion

In this article,we highlighted several basic characteristics of energy systems, and drew attention to some underlying trends for particular fuel types. Based on this information, we can say that:Energy systems are capital-intensive and hard to change once they have been built. Therefore, developing countries should track energy system trends closely and build their energy systems according to their future needs. The most important factor influencing the decision of which energy source to use is economics. Until a resources unit cost is competitive with others, it will not enjoy widespread acceptance and usage. Fossil fuels will dominate energy markets in the short run. The shares of coal and oil in the fuel mix will remain relatively constant until 2020, while the market for natural gas will expand rapidly. Nuclear power will survive only if a new generation of safer and cheaper reactors is introduced. Renewables will be the ultimate choice of the future. Currently, however, they cannot compete successfully on cost with conventional fuels.

Footnotes

1. Although the cost of extraction rises as the amount of oil remaining underground decreases, extraction technology also advances and pushes the cost down. Transporting oil from the field to the marketplace is added to the extraction (or purchasing) cost.
2. Christopher Harmon, Experience Curves of Photovoltaic Technology (March 2000). The entire report is available on IIASA web site: http: www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents lR-00-014.pdf
3. Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN at Petten), “Endogenous Technological Change in Energy System Models.” Paper presented at the 1999 IIASA conference.
4. IIASA-WEC. 1998.
5. International Energy Outlook 2000 is available on the EIAs Web site: http: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.
6. N. Nakicenovic, A. Gruebler, and A. McDonald, Global Energy Perspectives (Cambridge. UK: 1998).
7. Experts differ over what exactly is included in this category. For practical purposes, renewables cover all energy sources except coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear. Therefore this group includes, but is not limited to, hydroelectricity, wave, wind, biomass, and solar energy.

Although the world’s inhabitants have continuously suffered from moral, spiritual and cultural erosion for centuries, this erosion has not been at the same level throughout the world. In some parts of the Muslim world, specifically, the noxious winds of several recent trends such as positivism, atheism, materialism, fascism, racism, and pure rationalism have not been able to trample everything in their paths. In addition, certain values have not been utterly destroyed, and the flowers of faith and morality have not completely withered away. Although these trends have altered the spiritual framework of many people, out of the ashes has risen ‘torch bearers’ to illuminate the way to the cleansing springs of faith, devotion, holistic morals, sound thinking, and hope. To find the ‘torch bearers’ one need only to go to places where the remembrance of the Creator occurs. Many of these light bearers are to be found among the youth. One can find these young men and women in schools where ethereal or spiritual values are not shunned. It is there one can see that the voice of spirituality has not been silenced. It is our belief that a considerable part of the world population has come to the awareness that a world devoid of spiritual inclusiveness is a world in need.

It is generally difficult to build a world based on tranquillity without belief in and worship of the Supreme Master of creation. Thus, the new revival toward spiritual awareness that we have observed in many parts of the world allows us to feel optimistic that humankind will reestablish the balance between the corporeal and the spiritual. This new ‘balance’ among the material and spiritual, physical and metaphysical, and worldly and other worldly, will hopefully lead to a civilization that is unafraid to explore the nature of existence in relation to its dependence on the creator. In the future, these fortunate generations will see their expectations of life realized because of this newly found balance. They will be satisfied with their collective destinies and will be satisfied with what the future will bring. If our hopes for a bright future could be visualized, the scene would be evergreen valleys and sloping hills, and the climate would be illuminated with faith. The turmoil and chaos that was at one time so pervasive would be a distant memory. We believe, and have always been hopeful, that the day will come when the ‘harbingers of good news’ will call people to salvation and happiness. These ‘heralds’ will, with permission of the Creator, establish in the souls of people a captive understanding of the spiritual plane. Following this, these newly informed individuals will understand the mercy, tenderness, and inspiration the spiritual realm offers.

On the other hand, when those who in the past, impeded individuals on their spiritual journeys, become aware that they and not their spiritually inclined counterparts have failed, their gaunt faces will be grim with hopelessness. When they see their aspirations of ruling by the iron fist have come to naught, they will then see the futileness of their actions. On that day, people with strong will, eyes bright with hope, hearts filled with faith, and the determination to establish balance in the world, will step forward.

We are convinced that in many parts of the world there are those who preserve because of their faith and loyalty to perennial traditions and human values. These individuals have succeeded in maintaining a balance between faith and reason, scientific knowledge and pure spirituality, while remaining culturally sensitive to their surroundings. One might ask at this point, “How can all of this be achieved?” The foundation for this revitalization will be based primarily on two things. One is service to humankind, and the other is having the ability to overcome all obstacles by having faith and confidence in and reliance upon the Eternal Being. Will it be easy to find this balance? No, it will not. However, one key element to bringing these aspirations into fruition is the collective softening of hearts. Hearts must be softened with love to the degree that they can be entitled to receive their rewards. Eyes must be warm with love to such an extent with love in order to reflect the zeal and affection that is in the heart, and souls must flourish to the extent that they can receive the gifts pouring forth from the spiritual realms. In addition, it must not be forgotten that building such a world requires great effort and forbearance. Those who carry humankind to the summit of happiness will have to struggle with many difficulties and overcome many obstacles; they will experience moments of depression coupled with moments of extreme joy. These individuals will also encounter innumerable hostilities. Many of their plans and projects will seem to bear no fruit and many times they will feel they are on the verge of despair. Those who are less spiritually evolved may try to block their paths; however, compassion will help the embattled individuals attain their goals. It should be noted that the road to justice and tolerance is often paved with struggles and difficulties. When we think of the obstacles of those who walked before us had to overcome to obtain and preserve the values we are making use of today, we are silenced by awe. What a price they paid for the ethical and traditional values many treat with apathy, disdain, and disrespect. All creations should beg the Creator to refrain from asking us to pay the true cost of the bounties that are given to us. For even if we could worship twenty four hours a day, seven days a week, our efforts would still pale in comparison to the many blessings we are given.